Month: September 2010

Global Warming Furries

Bradford Plumer focuses on the counterintuitive effects of climate change:

More warming could bring more snowstorms and the occasional extra-bitter cold snap in January. At which point Matt Drudge seizes on the heavy snowfalls to imply that "global warming" is all a hoax and we don't need to do anything about it. (He'll then go strangely silent when, say, we start breaking summer temperature records, as has been happening this year.) And big snowpocalypse-type winters do seem to convince the public that greenhouse-gas emissions might not be anything to worry about after all.

Antoine Dodson: Instant Global Star, Ctd

A reader writes:

I suppose I can't speak for the entire internet, but I certainly never felt like I was laughing *at* Antoine. I know he wasn't laughing, but "laughing with" and "laughing at" aren't the only ways to laugh in the world. How about laughing with incredulity and admiration?

I seriously laugh with joy when Antoine says, "You don't have to come and confess, we're lookin' for you!" Because, yeah! Fuck yeah! And I don't just laugh; I sing along with him and dance in my office because it's such a great song!

And he's got plenty of genuine fans. Money quote from this Antoine interview:

We're not gonna cry and play victim if that's what everybody wants us to do right now.

And he got his Internet money.

Taxing Pot

Bruce Bartlett compares California's marijuana legalization bill to past prohbitions:

During the 1890s and the early part of the 20th century, there was a powerful national campaign to abolish smoking that was no less intense than the drive for Prohibition. A key reason the campaign ultimately fizzled out in the 1920s was the government's need for tobacco tax revenues, especially after alcohol tax revenues dried up. The Republicans' cuts in income taxes in the 1920s also increased the federal government's dependence on tobacco tax revenues, which rose from 4 percent of federal receipts in 1920 to 11.2 percent in 1929. The onset of the Great Depression, the concomitant fall in income tax revenues, and the inelasticity of demand for cigarettes caused tobacco revenues to rise to 20.7 percent of all federal receipts by 1932.

In the end, revenue needs trumped sumptuary considerations in the cases of both alcohol and tobacco. This raises the interesting question of whether revenue considerations will drive reform of the laws against illegal drugs.

The View From Your Window Contest: Winner #16

Vfyw-contest_9-18

A reader writes:

Could it be Northern India?  Or Central America?  Or the Pacific Northwest?  The modern stadium lights, lush green vegetation, and (possible) geothermal hotspot in the background make me think it’s the latter.  Or is it Iceland?  Nah, too many trees.  And that awning would be destroyed in the wind. I’ll go with La Fortuna, Costa Rica.  (Actual Google searches included “powerlines Costa Rica”, “stadiums near powerlines”,  and “plants”.  Nothing was fruitful.)

Another writes:

Unless I’m missing something here, this is a tough one. The rounded mountains, high ground, low clouds, and manicured fields all tell me South Africa, although I admit my image of the nation is being distorted by this summer’s World Cup. If I’m right, though, it’s pretty clear to me it’s the Western Cape, and likely the Misty Mountains. I’m going to go with north of Worcester, South Africa.

Another:

Well I’m sure you have plenty of winners on this one (the mountains with the flatirons are a DEAD giveaway).  I know it’s very close to Boulder, Colorado. The question really is, exactly where.  Slightly northeast?  Ah hell, it might even be Boulder, but my guess is Niwot.

Many guesses were in the Boulder area. Another:

This one doesn’t seem too bad.  Probably Pacific, possibly an island (of volcanic origin).  Also, it appears to be somewhere a school and tree farm are adjacent.  I’m guessing they might be Macadamia nut trees, and while not indigenous to the island, would point to Hawaii.  I glanced quickly at the islands for Macadamia/School co-existence and will go with the Honaunau School in Captain Cook, Hawaii.

Another:

Waipio, HI? Couldn’t get an address for this one, which makes me uncertain as to whether I’m even on the right continent. If forced to give a place (for proximity’s sake), I’d say somewhere near Ka Uka Boulevard. The baseball diamond with the floodlights is one of very few on the island of Oahu.  I’ve scoured private schools in Hawaii, floodlight manufacturers, power line grids, and still can’t find the buildings (hoping Google Maps satellite is out of date), so I’m not sure this isn’t Kyoto or something.

Another:

I’m a purist on these things – no Google satellite for this Van Winkle. Somewhere in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan?  The baseball field, the Japanese-style roof beams, and what look like a couple Japanese schoolgirls. Plus some ugly houses and a Quonset hut in the background – maybe a U.S. base?

Several readers guessed military installations. Another:

I’m gonna guess Daegu, South Korea. The picture has an Asian feel, especially the fog-shrouded green mountains. There are two school girls in uniform. That, plus the volleyball net, suggest Japan or Korea. The building in the foreground (assuming it’s a school) is not nice enough for Japan, so I’m going with Korea. Daegu is the biggest city in South Korea that sits in or near mountains. So Daegu it is.

Another:

Hondurasguess This one has tropical vegetation, the construction is simple and does not reflect great wealth.  The mountains appear to have a wet climate. My pulled-out-of-my-ass guess is Honduras.  Since the picture was taken a plain looking to the mountains, and looking at a topographical map of Honduras on wikipedia, the candidates are in the region of Choluteca or Gracias a Dios.  Since I’m guessing anyway I’ll say:  Honduras:  Choluteca:  El Triunfo  (I’ve attached what I believe is a picture from the Choluteca region)

Oh, and I deserve a few points for spotting Andrew at the Dina Martina show on Saturday in Provincetown.  My husband passed him in the men’s room.

Another:

I look forward to this contest every Saturday morning, and more often than not, by 2:00pm, I find myself hopelessly frustrated. And here we are again …

I think this photo was taken either in the Caribbean (probably Jamaica), or somewhere in the Pacific (French Polynesia seems most likely). The trouble is, these two locations are on opposite ends of the earth! So if my guess is wrong, it’s going to be really, really wrong. Last week, I ignored my instincts and fixated on the American-type vehicles. I guessed Florida (which much to my chagrin, was even farther off in miles than the person who guessed Germany!). So I’m sticking with my gut this time, and my gut says Kingston, Jamaica.

Another:

As soon as I saw this image, I was swept back to writing part of my dissertation while housesitting in the south of Switzerland one summer.  From a window not unlike this, I looked out on the Alps and wrote at a level – in terms of quantity and quality – that I hadn’t done before or since.  My late partner would cross the train tracks (parallel to the space between the bushes and the klieg lights in this photo?), and go for a mountain hike most mornings. In the afternoon, I’d shop for groceries, we’d cook, and read.  Occasionally we’d go exploring the Val Verzasca.  Best.  Summer.  Ever.

So I’m going to guess Roveredo, Switzerland.  I’m sure I’m at least a continent off, but the pleasure of the memory, and the expected pleasure of reading the other entries that are wrong but brimming with life, is worth it.

Another:

First time VFYW contest entrant here *deep breath*  My guess, trying to narrow down to the neighborhood at least: Punavai Plaine, Punaauia, Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia, looking out towards the island Moorea. I’m guessing Papeete purely because I was there two weeks ago for an international badminton competition, of all things (I’m a USA hopeful for the London 2012 Olympics and we’re at the beginning of a grueling two-year qualification process). So this is probably a classic seeing-what-I-recently-saw guess, but here goes.

The island in the background looks suspiciously similar to the view from my host CIMG1366 family’s home. However, they live up in an area called Punavai Nui, which is on a hill, so it’s the wrong angle to be there exactly, which is why I changed it to ‘Punavai Plaine’, which is the same area at sea level. Attached is the view from my host family’s balcony, the view that I was spoiled with for a week while I was there. If I’m wrong about Papeete for this window contest you’re welcome to use this photo for a regular VFYW, I think it would be too easy for a contest.

Assuming I’m right that this is Papeete, cheeky of you to finally choose a place where there aren’t Google-able street addresses everywhere. I’m leaving a tournament in Bogotá, Colombia to go back to home to San Francisco for two days before flying to Copenhagen, so I really don’t have time to get more specific. So if there’s a local university student or a recent honeymooner who also correctly IDed Papeete, I’m out of luck. So I’m crossing my fingers that the students aren’t aware of this contest and the honeymooners were all whisked off to other islands (which is probably true) and didn’t see any of Papeete, so I can win the book and gift it to my parents – my biggest fans and supporters.

I’ll also have you know that I saw the contest right before going to sleep and was apparently so wound up at the thought that I might know this view that I ended up dreaming that I was on a hike in Serbia (which I only know because someone in the dream said it) that had a view of this island or whatever … I’m so wrong about Papeete, aren’t I?

Yes, but you should’ve looked around a little more before catching that flight. Another:

I know exactly where this is: San Simon University playing flields in Cochabamba, Bolivia, South America. Yahoo!

Another:

This contest is seriously hard. I’m going to hazard a guess here, because it looks familiar. It reminds me of the wine growing areas just southeast of Mendoza, Argentina. Although the stadium lights at second glance make me almost 100% certain that I’m wrong.

This contest really is fascinating though. It reminds me of the “smart cow problem” that folks talk about with Digital Rights Management software. To stretch the analogy: To identify the location of any picture in the world, you don’t need every Dish reader to be a globe-trotting botano-anthropologist; it just takes one smart cow to unlock the gate.

Another:

My first impression was that this was the plateau north of Bogota, Colombia – because of the mountains, the type of construction, the bricks and roof, the vegetation, and what looks to be a greenhouse to the left. This area is known for the cultivation of flowers. The mountains in the background are the Andes mountains; this is on the plateau (or ‘sabana’) of the eastern chain of the Andes (of the three mountain chains – all part of the Andes chain – that cut through Colombia), just north of Bogota, in the department of Cundinamarca. The photo is taken from west to east.

The problem is knowing exactly where along the plateau it is. I think it somewhere close/between Chia and Cajica, as two reference points. Assuming others will get close, I’ll go with coordinates: 4’53’35.26″N 74’02’08.79″W

Am always a little afraid to guess because of how far off I’ll be, but I am feel confident enough this time to try. Even if I don’t win, I hope I am right about location – this is a lovely area of a most beautiful and incredible country, which I am glad to see as part of VFYW.

So close. Another:

No need for maps or coordinates. I am a passive participant of this contest, but this time the picture gave me the twitters. That is in Bogotá, Colombia.  The mountains with the low clouds, the brick structures, slanted tin roofs, the ‘grass-stands’ and the uniformed girls. Extra points if I guess that this is a teacher? Taking a picture from his office or classroom at school? The more I look at the picture the more convinced I become. Amazing how one picture can capture the mood of an entire way of life. This better be right.

Moo. The reader who submitted the photo wrote:

I am a social studies teacher at a bilingual school here, and took the picture from my classroom window. It is on the edge of the city, and faces the mountains of the nearby town of Cota. Not sure if I have ever seen a view from Colombia before.

They have been few and far between: this one from Bogotá was posted shortly after the window feature launched in 2006; this one from Medellin was posted in 2007; and this one from Bogotá in 2008 made it into our book.

A total of five ‘smart cows’ correctly guessed Bogotá, out of about 100 entries. The rest of the guesses are forthcoming (more snafus with Google Maps caused the first map to be lost again).

— C.B.

Not Really Focusing On The Family

David Boaz calls out social conservatives for lamenting the breakdown of the family, and then focusing on gay marriage far more than divorce:

Why all the focus on issues that would do nothing to solve the problems of “breakdown of the basic family structure” and “the high cost of a dysfunctional society”? Well, solving the problems of divorce and unwed motherhood is hard. And lots of Republican and conservative voters have been divorced. A constitutional amendment to ban divorce wouldn’t go over very well with even the social-conservative constituency. Far better to pick on a small group, a group not perceived to be part of the Republican constituency, and blame them for social breakdown and its associated costs.

Rauch fights along the same lines.

If Tea Partiers Take Congress, Ctd

Daniel McCarthy explains how the Tea Party will be co-opted even if it succeeds in sending the candidates it favors to Washington DC:

Not only are Fox News, the Weekly Standard, and AEI going to be defining the program for whatever Republicans get elected in November, but successful Tea Party candidates will for the most part have to draw upon the same pool of staffing talent that all the other Republicans draw upon, a reservoir composed of cadres of political professionals who live to build careers and sidle up to power, not to shake things up in Washington. Not all staffers will be of that ilk, but even those of a better sort may quickly find themselves dependent upon studies carried out by the establishment’s think tanks and vulnerable to attacks from the establishment’s media organs.

 

Even beyond personnel and policy, the Tea Parties are vulnerable at the philosophical level, where more articulate and comprehensive views tend to assimilate inchoate ones. The Tea Parties don’t like Obamacare, big spending, or bailouts. But that’s not a worldview, it’s a set of preferences that can be incorporated into any of several worldviews — and subordinated to the overall thrust of whatever ideology it is integrated into. Certainly in the past the GOP has enfolded libertarian and anti-establishment impulses into an ideology whose chief concern was with expanding military and executive power. In order to resist being co-opted again, the Tea Parties would have to stake out a different general view of the world — but who will do that staking out?

What Recovery?

Tyler Cowen isn't ready to declare the recession over:

Many countries, including the United States, are making plans on the basis that China will continue to grow robustly and that the European Monetary Union will hold together. In reality, China has had 30 years of rapid growth; historically, developing countries tend to have periodic booms and busts and so China is overdue for a slowdown. The country also has a real estate bubble and lots of excess capacity. A partial break-up of the eurozone would bring considerable economic and financial volatility, with potential fallout for the United States.

None of these problems is behind us and in the meantime we are suffering under uncertainty. That’s part of the reason why the recovery has been so unspectacular. In part it looks like a recovery only because things were, for a while, so extremely bad. I don’t yet think of us as being in a true recovery mode at all.

Selectively Reading Holy Books

Bob Wright explores an instance when the human tendency "to latch onto evidence consistent with your worldview and ignore or downplay contrary evidence" has an upside:

It means that the regrettable parts of the Koran — the regrettable parts of any religious scripture — don’t have to matter. After all, the adherents of a given religion, like everyone else, focus on things that confirm their attitudes and ignore things that don’t. And they carry that tunnel vision into their own scripture; if there is hatred in their hearts, they’ll fasten onto the hateful parts of scripture, but if there’s not, they won’t. That’s why American Muslims of good will can describe Islam simply as a religion of love. They see the good parts of scripture, and either don’t see the bad or have ways of minimizing it.

So too with people who see in the Bible a loving and infinitely good God. They can maintain that view only by ignoring or downplaying parts of their scripture.

His exegesis of a particularly controversial Koranic passage is here.