Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

Job_Losses

Ryan Avent is cheered by the October employment report:

I think the most plausible explanation is that private-sector employment had begun a decent recovery earlier this year, then lost steam because of the European debt crisis, the BP oil spill, and the fading contribution of fiscal stimulus. Those restraints have begun to lift. Data on factory orders, retail sales and car sales suggest a modest rebound began in the last few months. Indeed, retail employment rose 28,000 in October. The odds favour a continuation of decent job growth, though not as briskly as in October. And hazards remain. Bank credit continues to contract, although more slowly than earlier this year. Political gridlock could trigger a premature shift to fiscal tightening. But for now, optimists should celebrate, and Mr Obama can rue the injustice of the economic data calendar.

Felix Salmon says that the report continues "the same story we’ve been seeing for a while: good news for the employed, bad news for the unemployed":

Overall, the private sector has now added more than a million new jobs over the past year — a good start, in the wake of the 8 million job losses we saw over the course of the recession. And 400,000 of those new jobs have come in the past three months. For people with jobs, wages and hours are rising, too. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings are up 1.7%, while average hours worked are up 1.8%, resulting in a rise in average weekly earnings from $753.20 to $779.64. That’s a raise of $1,375 per year — pretty healthy, given the state of the economy and the large number of people out of work.

But government employment is down, and the extra hiring simply isn’t making any kind of a dent on the unemployment figures. 

Krugman is still dour:

At this rate we’ll return to full employment around 2030 or so.

Chart from Calculated Risk.

Was Healthcare Worth It?

 Austin Frakt scrubs the question of politics:

Given the importance of health reform for health, the interpretation of the question “Was health reform worth it?” in political terms, and only political terms, misses a lot. Even if health reform is responsible for a significant part of the mid-term’s outcome–and I don’t think it was–that it was worth it is not even a question in my mind. If one thinks that our health insurance system requires major reform, and I believe it does (who doesn’t?), then that’s the right thing to do. In fact, it was the right thing to do years ago.

Was health reform worth it? Looking beyond Washington and focusing on health, the answer is clearly “yes.” Even if the politics don’t justify it, the health of Americans does.

Nothing But Red Meat

PalinGetty

Douthat examines the "limits of Palinism":

[G]iven the choice between saying the thing that broadens her appeal and the thing that plays best with the narrower group that already loves her, Palin always, always seems choose the latter. Conservative writers have been giving her advice on how to break out of this box for more than two years now (this week it was Kevin Williamson, imagining how she might boost her credibility as a presidential candidate), and I think at a certain point we all just need to stop playing make-believe and acknowledge that she isn’t interested. The politician … on Fox News on Tuesday, never giving an inch and blaming everything on the media, is the politician Sarah Palin has become, and wants to be, and seems likely to remain.

Gerrymandering Gone Wild, Ctd

A reader writes:

Shape does not tell the whole story. It's tough drawing districts that fit all the guidelines: equal in size, respecting municipal boundaries, keeping together communities of interest, conforming to the Voting Rights Act, being compact and contiguous and all the other various criteria that are desirable and have little or nothing to do with predicting future voting patterns, etc. Sometimes an oddly shaped district is more diverse than a square one. It's content that counts.

Another writes:

It's not fair for you to highlight Arizona in this discussion

It is one of the few states that has a nonpartisan process for handling redistricting, which it has done effectively and without controversy.  For example, the district you show, AZ-2, is an historical anomaly; ever since Arizona got multiple congressional seats, the Navajo and Hopi nations – both of whom hate each other – have insisted on being in separate Congressional districts.  As Navajo territory completely surrounds Hopi, this is the only way of doing it.

Another:

Illinois' 4th district was the first majority Hispanic district in the state. The shape of the district was the result of a long, hard fight in which the Latino Community in Chicago sought to preserve their rights under the Voting Rights Act (King v. Illinois State Board of Elections). The district looks odd because it preserved the two largest Latino populations in Chicago, areas with Puerto Rican and Mexican-American majorities. The district successfully preserves a community of interest and does not dilute minority voting rights. Sometimes districts are oddly shaped for good reasons.

Another:

As you run through these peculiar districts, bear in mind that members of Congress represent people, not neat swaths of land. I don't mean to excuse egregiously manipulated districts, but might, for example, the California district that hugs the coast makes sense? It almost certainly is populated by people with a common interest related to the shoreline, and one likely muddled if you have too many inlanders included. Just a thought.

Mendocino: The “Wild West” Of Marijuana

A reader writes:

I can concur with your reader about the greedy growers up here in the Emerald Triangle voting against Prop 19. I live in Mendocino County – Ukiah specifically. Just like Humboldt, Prop 19 went down in our County as well. Every grower I know – who, believe me, come from all walks of life – voted against Prop 19.

My favorite piece of propaganda floating around these parts for the last few months was that Phillip Morris was buying up giant tracts of land in Mendocino County in advance of Prop 19 passing. The company would then, the theory goes, put every grower out of business. I found it amazing how many people fell for that stinker.

And the young people who most thought would come out in droves to vote for it? Not up here in Marijuana Central. They are the weed “trimmers” who enjoy getting paid $20 an hour under the table as a way to finance their college degrees. They voted straight Dem … and no on Prop 19. 

This northern corner of the state is a progressive strong-hold if ever there was one. It’s one of the deepest, darkest bluest areas of the country. But many of the social programs that we progressives support are being eliminated left and right because we’re so cash-strapped, and up here it’s mostly due to illegal marijuana. This is grape growing country; Mendo is immediately north of Sonoma and west of Napa and we have some very fine varietals, but marijuana is our most lucrative commodity. If it were legalized, we would be rolling it greenbacks. We would happily accept our fate as the Napa Valley of Marijuana.

But as long as it’s illegal, this will continue to be the Wild West. And I do mean wild; our dearly departed DA died one day before federal agents were to raid his property for his oversized and illegal pot garden; the wife of an attorney in the public defenders office, and former candidate for district attorney himself (ironically enough to replace said DA above) was pulled over in Utah a few years ago transporting hundreds of pounds of pot across the country; a local fire captain was caught growing 648 pot plants; even teachers have been caught growing huge amounts.

Follow the bouncing ball for a moment. We have schools that lose enrollment because illegal pot busts of 20-30 families in one district means kids don’t show up to school. Happens all the time around this time of year – harvest time. When kids miss school, their grades tank and the district loses revenues for each day they are out. When the grades tank and the revenue drops, the school “rating” heads south.  If the schools’ rating drops, the community is less attractive to newcomers. A less attractive community is less attractive to potential employers thinking of relocating here. If they don’t come here, then there is no economic development. And if there is little economic development, then there is a dwindling tax base to pay for public services. Ask a County sheriff to drive you down a main street in one of our towns and he or she will point out all the “retailers” who launder their pot money through their sham businesses. He’ll show you them right after he tells you how he had to lay off officers due to the dwindling cash problem up here.  

The illegal growers also tap into our public creeks and rivers and suck them dry, or worse, steal the water for their thirsty enterprises from ranchers who then receive a large water bill from the local municipality. Illegal, large grows require massive amounts of fertilizer, which is rarely disposed of properly, causing all kinds of environmental problems. 

And speaking of ranchers, the official #1 killer of livestock in our rural county last year was not some contagious disease or poachers. It was packs of wild dogs that guard illegal grows in the local forests and are cut loose at the end of the growing season to roam the countryside, starving. They are only cut loose, of course, after our #1 cash crop is harvested, dried, packed up and sent down Highway 101 to be sold far from the Emerald Triangle, leaving a far-reaching path of destruction in its wake.

The irony that our county, of all counties, voted this measure down is just too rich. You can’t make this shit up.

The Fastest Growing Demographic

 Serwer eyes the Latino vote:

Latinos are so diverse culturally that the only reason they vote as a bloc at all is because they continue to have collective interests as Latinos. That has more to do with a shared experience of discrimination than a shared culture; the more immigration policy becomes pretext for targeting Latinos, the more likely they are to vote this way. That said, the victories of Republican candidates like Susana Martinez, Marco Rubio, and Brian Sandoval show that they can blunt this trend in the short term by nominating Latino candidates for higher office. Right now, in the long term, Latinos are still a swing vote.

But they were critical in re-electing Harry Reid.

The Future Of Pot, Ctd

Rob Kampia's preferred next steps:

I’m advocating for a pair of legalization initiatives in 2012 in California and Colorado – states where support for ending prohibition is highest. And — keeping in mind that marijuana initiatives tend to do better in presidential election years — MPP still hopes to place medical-marijuana initiatives on the statewide ballots of Arkansas, Idaho, Missouri, and North Dakota in 2012. (We also remain optimistic about our chances for passing medical marijuana bills in Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, and New York before then.)

The Daily Wrap

Today on the Dish, Andrew argued the lack of a real existential threat from Iran in the third installment of Debating Israel-Palestine. Palin advertised for 2012, with a rising sun that is actually setting in reverse, and Tina Fey dusted off her impression. Palin vowed to never be vulnerable to "lamestream" media (of her choosing), Christianists dressed up in Tea Party clothing, and Bristol Palin can't dance but she could win by trying really hard. James Joyner eyed the 2012 front-runners, and Fox didn't want Christine O'Donnell for a news contributor.

Limbaugh's ranting ran counter to Abraham Lincoln and Adam Smith on tax cuts and Obama could be the black Eisenhower. Americans still badly needed jobs, Steve Pizer and Austin Frakt don't think Republicans will repeal healthcare and Dana Goldstein agreed with Obama that education could offer fertile ground for bipartisanship. Reihan supported Paul Ryan's take on taxes, and Ari Fleischer didn't want to ruin chances for spending cuts in 2012 by enacting legislation now. Rudy Giuliani wanted the Republicans to kill DADT already, readers sounded off on redistricting, and Gallup's poll was worse than Rasmussen's.

Kevin Drum looked on Prop 19's bright side, Yglesias joined him, while readers reacted more strongly. Kanye was feeling for Dubya, and with more civility than cable news, Bloggingheads loved to yell at each other. Ugly mugs fell in love, Alex Balk died a little for the McRib, Annie Leibovitz's photography isn't very expensive, and a niche blog of autocorrects made us laugh. Chart of the day here, Yglesias award here, VFYW here, quote for the day here, MHB here, and FOTD here.

–Z.P.