Month: November 2010

Nils August Andresen documents "the GOP's brain drain":

Overall, the picture that emerges is alarming. In good universities across the nation, students flee the Republican Party. And the better the universities, it seems, the more drastic the trend. So if we accept that the trend is drastic, that it is real and applies to most of the top universities – and I think that is reasonable – the next question is: How did this come about?

It seems that, to simplify, Republicans have gone from having a clear advantage among top students in the decade following the Eisenhower administration, to being competitive under the Nixon and Ford administrations, to being an energetic minority during Reagan and Bush Sr. years to being almost eradicated today. There are many explanations for this. Partly, it has to do with a change in the youth vote overall – however, that is hardly much comfort to Republicans, but rather a source of additional worry, since it bodes ill for Republicans over the coming decades. This change, in turn, has to do with cultural changes relating to gender, sexuality and the role of religion in public debate. Partly it has to do with the inclusion of new groups in top education institutions, first black and Hispanic students, followed by Asians over the last few decades. However, in the case of Asian students it could be argued that Asians trend towards the Democrats precisely because they have higher quality education.

Today on the Dish, Andrew countered Mark Vernon on civil partnerships and gay marriage and sounded the bells on Israel's eagerness to wage war with Iran. Gates backs an end to DADT, along with the rest of the country and the military. Andrew rebutted readers on the legality of natural plants, and we revisited Norml's pot map and Prop 19 results. Mike Meno wondered if Prop 19 could have passed in 2008, and, from the cannabis closet we got the story of when pot heals pain but could still ruin prospects for employment.

Andrew gagged a little over Politico's piece, and didn't want to underestimate the GOP, while DeMint continued to feed the fiscal fraud lines. Palin edits her own reality (television), Darlene McBride seemed like the pre-Palin Palin, and the Palins go way back with the Morlocks. Scott Adams imagined a world without political parties, and Andrew Sprung flipped his lid on Obama. Olbermann returned, the media nitpicked in predictable ways, and Marc Ambinder removed his blogging pajamas. Churchill may have harbored a dark side, Iraq drifted closer to sectarian war, and the U.S. joined China, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia in using the death penalty the most. Razib Khan considered gridlock, and Obama busted a move.

Comics thrived on the internets, but didn't prevent Nicaragua from invading Costa Rica based on Google Maps. TNC had to explain the police to his son, video games were as dangerous as real life, but they also challenged players to solve climate change. Whole Foods didn't want Dan Ariely's experiments, smart parents don't always produce book-smart kids, and religion helped the health of cities. Quote for the day here, miracle of medical science here, TNR archive favorites here, FOTD here, MHB here, VFYW here and the new VFYW game here.

–Z.P.

Alec Barker catches news outlets twisting British Army Major General Nick Carter's claim "that security in [the Zhari district near Kandahar] has been demonstrably enhanced because the price of ammonium nitrate, a banned fertilizer and major component of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in southern Afghanistan, has increased ten-fold, and the price of other bomb components has risen eleven-fold." Barker objects:

[T]he story does not report that Carter believed these figures were "by no means huge measures of success." The Guardian's version of the story, which has already crept into other media reports, might lead one to think erroneously that the general claimed a very significant accomplishment and made an unqualified statement of statistical fact throughout southern Afghanistan, rather than a limited observation about one district in the South. …

Since there generally are more and more bombs appearing in the south over time, the insurgency appears to be insensitive to rapid swings in the price of fertilizer.

Because this is an illicit and informal market, it is extremely difficult to know trends in prices precisely, or to know which factor – supply or demand – dominates. The point is that although anecdotal evidence about the price of fertilizer is suggestive of shifts in informal markets, it makes an unreliable indicator of success in disrupting an insurgency. …

Moments like this one demonstrate the frustrating little peculiarities of this type of war, and underscore the idea that traditional notions of victory and surrender are unrealistic when applied to the current Afghanistan conflict. Unable to quantify success in terms of targets destroyed or enemy units disabled, commanders in Afghanistan are left to argue that although opaque economic indicators are by no means indicative of success, and effects will not be observable until next summer, progress is nonetheless being made. Then they must watch as their nuanced ideas morph into misleading sound bites and creep into public discourse.  

(Photo: The bloodied clothing of an Afghan man, wounded from an IED, is seen on the ground after he received first aid in the Siah Choi area of Zari district of Kandahar province, south Afghanistan on October 23, 2010. By Massoud Hossaini/AFP/Getty Images)

Mike Meno highlights a new poll:

– 50 percent of California voters believe the use of marijuana should be made legal, regardless of their feelings on Prop. 19.
– 52 percent of voters believe our marijuana laws do more harm than good, agreeing that, “Like alcohol prohibition, laws against marijuana do more harm than good.” Only 37 percent disagreed with this statement.
– 31 percent of people who voted “no” on Prop. 19 believe marijuana should be legal, and agreed to the statement, “I believe marijuana should be legalized or penalties for marijuana should be reduced, but I opposed some of the specifics of Proposition 19.”
– 44 percent of voters believe legalization is inevitable, including 25 percent who voted against Prop. 19.

Also:

The survey’s most striking find is that if youth voters had turned out last week in the numbers they typically do during a presidential election year, Proposition 19 would have been statistically tied, with 49 percent voting yes to 51 voting no.

Paul Armentano brings us some less happy news: anti-marijuana California Attorney General candidate Steve Cooley has pulled ahead in the vote count.

Adam Serwer writes that "if Democrats can't repeal a policy more than two thirds of the American people, including a majority of conservatives want gone then they can't expect people to vote for them":

In December the Defense Department is reportedly set to release a study showing that, like the American people, most servicemembers aren't opposed to gays and lesbians openly serving. That's in contrast to the vast opposition of most servicemembers to racial integration in the 1940s; if Truman had insisted on staying his hand until a political climate as favorable as this one had come along, integrating the military might not have happened until decades later. 

Truman ended segregation in the military because it was the right thing to do, despite the fact that it was unpopular. Ending DADT happens to be both popular and the right thing to do, and Democrats today still can't get it done. 

Yglesias is irked by them:

Back when Republicans were unpopular because of the poor economy in late 2008, Barack Obama’s calm demeanor amidst economic crisis was said to be key to his popularity. Then when Democrats became unpopular because of the poor economy in late 2009, Barack Obama’s calm demeanor amidst economic crisis was said to be the key to his unpopularity. But if the economy improves, then conventional wisdom about every single aspect of Obama’s personality and policy agenda will pivot around that fact. With the economy in the dumps, the health care bill is liberal overreach. If the economy improves, the health care bill will be said to demonstrate the genius of pushing a moderate proposal with no public option. Just you wait.

Having been through this cycle a couple more times than Matt has, even I have been struck by the lame predictability of the media's sudden turn.

Nothing we didn't know – but confirmation nonetheless: too many in the media don't have any view but what is outside themselves. They're afraid to be biased, and therefore too quick to jump on what seems like the majority mood at any time. I remain of the view that Obama's temperament is still a great asset; as his attention to policy; and his obvious mixture of great egotism and epistemic modesty. I think he understands that playing the GOP political narrative game can trap you. Politics is not a game, in his view. And in the end, I suspect Americans will go with the adult, not the swooning adolescents.

Does anyone remember Darlene McBride's "Take Back America Tour"? It's uncanny.

Gallup's latest:

The use of the death penalty has been declining worldwide, with most of the known executions now carried out in five countries — China, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Anti-death penalty groups in the U.S. continue to fight the use of the death penalty, particularly when there are high-profile instances of its use, such as this year's execution in Virginia of Teresa Lewis, the first woman to be executed in that state in almost 100 years. Despite this, Gallup's latest update in October shows no diminution in the strong majority level of support for the death penalty in cases of murder within the U.S.

Whoops.