Month: March 2011

Nekama, a two-month-old North Chinese leopard, emerges from a basket at her official presentation to the media at Tierpark zoo on March 15, 2011 in Berlin, Germany. By Sean Gallup/Getty Images.

Avent says "Japan's humanitarian and economic catastrophe is developing into a minor global economic crisis":

Some of the market reaction to the situation is undoubtedly reflective of the uncertainty involved. So long as it isn't clear what the total cost of the disaster will be, markets will price in the possibility of the worst occuring. If the worst does not then occur, they'll snap back. And some of the market reaction to the situation is probably a panic generated by the sharp fall in share prices. That too is recoverable.

Cassidy's two cents:

What is really going on, I suspect, has little to do with the underlying forces of supply and demand: it is mainly about speculation. The same foreign investors who are dumping Japanese stocks are selling oil futures to hedge the big long positions they have been holding. They are also dumping gold—traditionally seen as a safe haven in uncertain times—and other commodities, such as copper, corn, and wheat. That means food prices, which have risen sharply over the past couple of years, are also likely to fall back—a boon to consumers, particularly poor ones.

Strange thing, global capitalism.

A reader writes:

The real story here isn't the song, or the video, but what led to their creation. They were produced by the Hollywood-based Ark Music Factory, which seems to be an outfit created to exploit the highly lucrative "tween girls with dreams of making it as a pop star" demographic. Ark Music has released many other heavily autotuned songs/videos by tween girls who can't sing or dance. They appear to employ professional song writers/producers to churn out generic pop. There's a good Salon piece that goes into a detail about Ark.

That article makes it sound like Ark Music Factory is taking advantage of these girls. I don't know if that's true.

To me, this looks like it could be a birthday present for a really rich young girl who thinks she's the next Katy Perry. Sort of like how you can bring little girls to Disney World and they get all dressed up as a Disney princess. It's a great gift for a 12-year-old girl: spend the day working with a "songwriter", record the song, get dolled up and shoot a music video with your friends. Then post it on YouTube and pretend you're a real pop star!

If that's not the business, then I'm moving to LA to start that business, because I guarantee it's a moneymaker.

A classic:

In what respect am I a Bad Person? This is not a rhetorical question.

But the whole post is well worth reading. It's about the question the Dish aired here.

Laurie Penny visits the UK mansion of Qaddafi's son Saif, "recently expropriated by activists working in alliance with Libyan exiles":

Nearly every room in this enormous house boasts a large, flat-screen television. The occupiers have set each one to al-Jazeera, for rolling coverage of the people's revolutions that are sweeping the Arab world. Televised gunfire echoes in the marble hallway as Jay, 25, explains how activists from the London squatter movement took over the Gaddafi mansion, moving in secretly and putting up notices declaring their intention to hold the empty house under English common law. "We wanted to show our solidarity the best way we know how," he says.

“It's a symbolic and practical reclamation of private property that belongs to the Libyan people. It's about their struggle, which is why the place has been handed over to the Libyans as a place to organise and a safe space for refugees," Jay says.

Well, they've tried Hitler and Lenin already – from a New York Post post linked to by Instapundit.

Catherine Rampell profiled Alvin Wong, "the American who fits all the demographic characteristics associated with happiness." Curious readers asked Rampell "who would be the least happy person in America based on Gallup’s data." The answer:

Statistically speaking, the least happy American would be a 4’10”, middle-aged Muslim woman without children who is separated from her husband and earns under $12,000 a year. She’s also an unemployed manufacturing worker in West Virginia.

Marc Lynch warns that Arab support for a no-fly zone evaporates when other military action – which a no-fly zone would probably require – is mentioned:

While Arab public opinion should not be the sole consideration in shaping American decisions on this difficult question, Americans also should not fool themselves into thinking that an American military intervention will command long-term popular Arab support. Every Arab opinion leader and Libyan representative I spoke with at the conference told me that "American military intervention is absolutely unacceptable."

Their support for a No Fly Zone rapidly evaporates when discussion turns to American bombing campaigns. This tracks with what I see in the Arab media and the public conversation. As urgently as they want the international community to come to the aid of the Libyan people, The U.S. would be better served focusing on rapid moves toward non-military means of supporting the Libyan opposition.  

Exum likewise remains skeptical.

(Photo: Libyan rebels direct a traffic of fleeing people at the southern entrance of the coastal city of Benghazi on March 15, 2011, as Libyan government forces assaulting the key city of Ajdabiya outflanked insurgents and cut the road north to the rebel capital of Benghazi, rebel sources said amid scenes of chaos in the town. By Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images)

Peter Feaver finds the Obama administration's approach at cross purposes with itself:

Up until now, the Obama administration has not really issued a clear policy. Instead, the administration has expressed a vague hope that Qaddafi would step down of his own accord or be forced out without the United States having to do much. In support of this hope, the Obama administration has articulated a number of policies that work at cross purposes. For instance, the threat of war crime charges undercuts the likelihood of Qaddafi stepping down; if he steps down he exposes himself to prosecution whereas he stands a fighting chance of avoiding the war crimes tribunal if he clings to power. The freezing of assets is a plausible way to weaken Qaddafi, but it also makes it less likely he will flee — he would want access to his stash if he took the Idi Amin option of ignominious exile. And so on. Once Qaddafi has re-solidified control, the Obama administration will have to settle on a single coherent policy with a clear strategic objective. Will they pursue regime change? Or will they "reset" relations? 

Salmon argued against donations earmarked for Japan because it's better to give unrestricted funds than to "try to target money at whichever disaster might be in the news today." Tyler Cowen counters:

1. The chance that your aid will be usefully deployed, and not lost to corruption, is much higher than average.

2. I believe this crisis will bring fundamental regime change to Japan (currently an underreported issue), rather than just altering the outcome of the next election.  America needs to signal its partnership with one of its most important allies.  You can help us do that.

3. Maybe you should give to a poorer country instead, but you probably won’t.  Odds are this will be an extra donation at the relevant margin.  Sorry to say, this disaster has no “close substitute.”