John Horgan criticizes climate fear-mongering. He cites the 1992 paper by anthropologists Carol and Melvin Ember, "Resource Unpredictability, Mistrust and War":
The strongest correlate of warfare was a history of unpredictable natural disasters—such as floods, droughts and insect infestations—that had disrupted food supplies. The Embers were careful to note that it was not the disasters themselves that precipitated war, but the memory of past disasters and hence the fear of future ones. … In other words, wars stemmed from factors that were not ecological so much as psychological.
Of course, societies in a region with a history of war also fear war itself; hence they arm themselves and even launch preemptive attacks against other groups, making their fear self-fulfilling. The irony—or tragedy—is that war often inflicts on us deprivation far worse than that which we feared.
Given the Embers' finding of a link between war and fear, I worry about the extreme proposals and warnings of [Bill] McKibben and other greens. Rather than inspiring people to grow organic beets, install solar panels on their roofs and ride bicycles to work, green alarmists might end up provoking voters to stockpile guns and ammo, and support even higher defense budgets.
The Dish 