A group of researchers is applying a mathematical formula to insurgency attacks. They argue "progress curves are a consequence of people adapting to circumstances and learning to do things better" and that warfare follows the same pattern:
In biology, the Red Queen hypothesis is that predators and prey (or, more often, parasites and hosts) are in a constant competition that leads to stasis, as each adaptation by one is countered by an adaptation by the other. In the case Dr Johnson is examining the co-evolution is between the insurgents and the occupiers, each constantly adjusting to each other’s tactics. The data come from 23 different [Afghan] provinces, each of which is, in effect, a separate theatre of war. In each case, the gap between fatal attacks shrinks, more or less according to Dr Johnson’s model. Eventually, an equilibrium is reached, and the intervals become fairly regular.
The Dish 