Brendan Nyhan doesn't expect the Obama birth certificate to have much effect:
The best hope for killing this myth — or any similar one — is to create a bipartisan consensus that it is false. If conservative elites speak out aggressively against it, Republicans who are distrustful of Obama and the mainstream media might change their minds. Unfortunately, this seems unlikely — the political incentives to pander to birthers are still too strong (as Donald Trump has recently demonstrated).
But Fox has been pretty good these past few days. Nonetheless, Mark Blumenthal backs this up with data:
Nyhan's expectation is consistent with an overnight national poll conducted on Wednesday by the firm SurveyUSA. Their poll (which combined automated calls to landlines and live interviewer calls to cell phones) finds 19 percent of adults, and 33 percent of Republicans, still believe Obama was definitely or probably born outside the United States. About half as many — 10 percent of adults and 18 percent of Republicans — tell SurveyUSA that they are "sure the birth certificate newly released by the White House is a forgery."
Let's follow Fallows' lead and wait for a week to assess this. But even this overnight poll shows a drop from 45 percent of Republicans to 33 percent. The 18 percent are hopeless.
The Dish 