Where Ryan Loses Credibility

With delusions like this:

A study just released by the Heritage Center for Data Analysis projects that The Path to Prosperity will help create nearly one million new private-sector jobs next year, bring the unemployment rate down to 4% by 2015, and result in 2.5 million additional private-sector jobs in the last year of the decade. It spurs economic growth, with $1.5 trillion in additional real GDP over the decade. According to Heritage's analysis, it would result in $1.1 trillion in higher wages and an average of $1,000 in additional family income each year.

That's way off any sane economist's view. The assumption, moreover, is that major income tax cuts will dramatically boost economic growth. So why then were the Clinton years – after he raised taxes – such a success, and the Reagan years when he raised taxes such a boom, and the Bush years, with huge tax cuts paid for by borrowing from the Chinese, such a disappointment?

To put it mildly, this an ideological statement, not an empirical one.

2012: Let The Excitement Begin

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Peter Beinart yawns:

The last two presidential elections were gather-your-grandchildren-around-the-rocking-chair material. 2004 was like Antietam … The day after Bush’s victory, one liberal posted this note on Craigslist: “I would like to fight a Bush supporter to vent my anger. If you are one, have a fiery streek [sic], please contact me so we can meet and physically fight. I would like to beat the shit out of you.”

If 2004 was Antietam, 2008—for liberals, at least—was Juneteenth. The season of our liberation, our redemption. Even many Republicans, who disliked Obama’s views, realized they were watching something jaw-dropping. It was like watching the pitcher for the team you hate pitch a perfect game.

But 2012? Wake me when it’s over.

And miss what could be fantastically colorful debates with the likes of Bachmann, Gingrich, Romney, Huckabee and possibly Palin? How could one possibly nod off? We are about to enter a circus.

(Photo: sleeping attendees at Oktoberfest 2010 by Alexandra Beier/Getty Images.)

The KSM Cave-In

Alex Massie sighs:

The whole affair reeks. It's the kind of stupid thing one would expect from a shabby, clapped-out regime unable to appreciate either justice or public relations. The United States doesn't like to think of itself in those terms but this decision, politically prudent and realistic as it may be, marks another moment when the rhetoric of American exceptionalism is revealed as just so much baloney.

Dahlia Lithwick is equally unforgiving:

The only lesson learned is that Obama's hand can be forced. That there is no principle he can't be bullied into abandoning. In the future, when seeking to pass laws that treat different people differently for purely political reasons, Congress need only fear-monger and fabricate to get the president to cave. Nobody claims that this was a legal decision. It was a political triumph or loss, depending on your viewpoint. The rule of law is an afterthought, either way.

But it's fair to say that because of insane hysteria, whipped up by Republicans, Obama had little choice. He has been barred from closing Gitmo by the Congress and couldn't overcome the panic of people like Mayor Bloomberg to find a place for a civilian trial. But I agree this is another sad concession to the politics of fear; and yet another rebuke to the politics of hope.

The View From Your Window

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Austin, Texas, 11.36 am

(New Dish readers – and it seems we have many – are invited to submit their own window views. The rules are pretty simple. Photos need to show the frame of the window, which should be one you regularly look out from. Send the town, state and time of the photo. For foreign views, include the country. No dogs, cats or animals are allowed. And no fricking rainbows. For a full range of the images, check out our compilation of them from dawn to dusk across the world here.)

The Hard Left Responds

I have to say there is a great deal of defensiveness out there. This reader conveys some of the feeling:

My reaction to the new website? Meh. My reaction to your embracing Paul Ryan's prescription for "fiscal sanity"? Why not just go ahead advocate that we round up the poor and gas them to death in concentration camps?

Good Lord. If the only proposals the left has to address the debt is massive tax increases, they should say so. And I did not embrace it in its entirety. In fact, I called for revenue-positive tax reform and much bigger cuts in defense. What I admire is Ryan's willingness to cop to the suffering and sacrifice that the Bush years made inevitable in its fiscal irresponsibility.

Malkin Award Nominee

"I very simply said that Iran is going to take over Iraq, and if that’s going to happen, we should just stay there and take the oil. They want the oil, and why should we? We de-neutered Iraq, Iran is going to walk in, take it over, take over the second largest oil fields in the world. That’s going to happen. That would mean that all of those soldiers that have died and been wounded and everything else would have died in vain– and I don’t want that to happen. I want their parents and their families to be proud," – Donald Trump.

I can't wait for the GOP primary debates, can you?

(For new readers from the Beast, a glossary of various awards the Dish gives out annually can be read here. Many of our tips come from readers, so fire away!)

In Defense Of Blasphemy

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Andrew Exum has an moving post on Terry Jones and the Middle Eastern response to his Koran burning. How many Muslims understand free speech?

In my many travels through the Islamic world, there is both widespread admiration for the freedom of political speech we enjoy here in the United States as well as incomprehension regarding the freedom of religious speech we enjoy. It’s all well and good to be able to denounce the president, but why on Earth do we Americans allow people to speak ill of Jesus Christ, or the Virgin Mary, or Muhammad?

If “freedom of speech” means watching some artist immerse a crucifix in urine or defecate on the Bible, no thanks. Because in the Islamic world (as well as in the region of the United States where I grew up), God isn’t some abstract idea, and Jesus and Muhammad were real prophets of God who should be venerated. A common refrain I hear, whether in Afghanistan or in the Arabic-speaking world, is that we Americans should have reasonable limits on what we can say and do regarding religious speech. 

Exum goes on to give a full-throated defense of free speech – no matter how disgusting or intolerant. Forbidding open debate on religious matters is, to my mind, the worst kind of censorship. The classical liberal view is that precisely because these matters are of supreme importance, open, unfettered engagement with them – positive or negative – matters. Laws against blasphemy simply violate the core principles of the Founding Fathers. And many blasphemers have eventually turned into prophets.

(Photo by Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images)

The Dreadful Uncertainties Of A Fair Trial

Every now and again, you read a banal sentence in the newspaper that, after a moment's thought, takes one's breath away. Check out this NYT sentence on the prosecution by military commission of Khaled Sheikh Muhammed:

Mr. Ghailani's case ended up stiffening resistance to civilian trials because a jury acquitted him on more than 280 charges. Although he was still convicted on one count and sentenced to life in prison, critics pointed to the result as a sign that civilian trials were too uncertain.

Have we really sunk to the idea that verdicts in terror suspect trials need to be fixed in advance? And what does that logic say about the fairness of military tribunals? Once more, the 9/11 massacre leads to our suspension of ancient traditions – like habeas corpus, the absolute ban on torture, the Fourth Amendment and an open trial by jury. Al Qaeda could never destroy our values alone. We did it for them.

The View From Your Window Contest: Winner #44

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For new Dish readers who just discovered us through the Beast, every week we hold a contest to see who can guess the location of a reader-submitted window view. We post a new one every Saturday at noon – see here for the latest example and an explanation of the rules. On Tuesday we post the results and the winner gets a free The View From Your Window book, a curated compilation we published through Blurb, a print-on-demand company. Regarding the above photo, a reader writes:

My first thought was: This one is impossible. With more examination, however, details start to emerge … ice, bare deciduous trees, a barrier island, some industry, a distant shore, and the view is from some open-air rustic (stone?) lookout with a railing at a high vantage point.  So my second thought was: it should be fairly easy to find this with a little searching for high-latitude barrier islands on bodies of water about 10 to 15 miles across. Alas, after spending a long time searching northern and southern maps, I have to return to my first thought:  This one is impossible!

Still, a guess: Somewhere on the St. Lawrence River, perhaps near Trois Pistoles, Canada?

Another writes:

My first thought was, “That looks like the far north end of Northernmost Northlandia.” Since I actually have no idea where it is, I googled “Northernmost Town in the World,” and the answer was Hammerfest, Norway. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it – like a warm tongue to a frozen lamp post in Hammerfest.

Another:

I’ve tried to guess before (ALWAYS wrong) but this is the first time I’m sending in an actual entry. My guess is Pickering, Ontario. This looks like freshwater to me, and the ice is familiar from my documentation of ice on Lake Michigan (I take and post a picture of Lake Michigan nearly everyday, in all seasons). The “silo” in the front looks vaguely like the Pickering nuclear power plant (but not really). I’m going to Toronto tomorrow, so I will look for something like this from the air above one of the three Great Lakes I’ll be flying over and resend with a more accurate guess!

Another:

I just returned to the US after spending three years in Tromso, Norway, so that’s my guess.  Located about 200 miles above the Arctic Circle, Tromso is a beautiful, modern city of nearly 70,000 inhabitants with more than 90 different nations represented.  It boasts over 100 pubs and restaurants and was Norway choice for the 2018 Winter Olympics.

Another:

Damn you people!

I got excited because I recognized the grain elevator as a decent clue. I then proceeded to waste an hour searching for a matching google image or an obvious match to the landscape to no avail. And really, who am I kidding? I am a novice in a field of expert window finders. All that being said, I’ll be damned if I spent an hour hopelessly searching only to not make a guess: Sandusky Bay, Ohio?

Another:

I figure the clue here is the window itself – small, rough-hewn and with a bar across it, which made me think of an old fort or something like that. It’s quite high up, so probably on a hill or mountain. After using Google and Wikipedia to search for old forts in Canada and Alaska, I became disheartened by the sheer volume of them. I don’t know how some of these contestants manage it.

For a while I thought it was Sitka, Alaska – coincidentally, the site of Michael Chabon’s alternate-universe Israel in The Yiddish Policeman’s Union. It has the right geographical features but, alas, no forts. After twenty minutes I have given up, and I’m prepared to be astounded by the frightening deduction skills of whoever wins this one.

Another:

OK, I think I’ve now seen photos of every grain elevator on every shore of every Great Lake, but I still couldn’t find the one in this photo!  Clueless city boy that I am, it’s probably not even a grain elevator. Anyway, I’m sticking with the Great Lakes, specifically Superior, so this week’s wild guess is Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada.  Of course it could just as easily be Duluth, Minnesota …

Yes it could be:

I got this one, since I lived in Duluth for 23 years.  The body of water in the foreground (frozen) is the Duluth Harbor.  The strip of land is known as “Park Point”.  Beyond the strip of land is the western end of Lake Superior.

A few dozen readers correctly guessed Duluth. One writes:

Access to the neighborhood is via the Duluth Lift Bridge (itself a unique piece of engineering). All residents of Park Point have a ready-made excuse for being late- you just have to say “I got bridged” and everyone knows what it means (that the bridge was up to let boats through, interrupting all traffic across that only connection with the mainland).

Another sends a photo of the lift bridge. Another sends an impressive view of the grain elevator:

Downtownaerial

Another:

To the right is a park that provides access to the beach where my family has had some very happy times.  Nice white sand and plenty of drift wood to build a fire with.  The water is more invigorating than what you would want to spend much time in, but it’s tolerable in August. The stretch of sand on Minnesota Point, upwards of 6-7 miles long, is the longest freshwater sand beach in the world.  The French explorers who first saw it are reported to have been astonished by all that sand.

Another:

This is going to be easy from basically anybody from Duluth. This view is from the EngerSE side of Enger Tower, in Enger Park. The strip of what appears to be open water in the harbor means the picture was taken in the last few weeks. If you look closely, you can see the R/V Blue Heron in the harbor, the University of Minnesota’s research vessel, from which I do much of my research.

The tower was visited this week by emmisaries from Norway and will be rededicated later this year by his King Harald. Now I know what I’m doing this afternoon; I’ve not visited Enger park since last fall. I’ll let you know which window this is.

Another:

The 5-story, stone Enger Tower was dedicated by Crown Prince Olav of Norway in 1939. Its gradual deterioration mirrors the general decline of Duluth, the leading seaport at the head of the Great Lakes. For Sinclair Lewis, in Babbitt, Duluth had been “the Zenith City of the Unsalted Seas.”

Another:

The picture is not likely to have been taken this year, as Enger Tower is currently undergoing renovation. If it was taken this year, it was taken by part of the construction crew.

Another sends an old postcard from Duluth:

PointOfRockPostcard-450x300

Another writes:

Having skied the UP of Michigan the first time this past winter and the week I spent up there has left me convinced that any VFYW of an icebound shoreline has to be Lake Superior, so I saw this week’s contest and concluded immediately that this is Duluth. I guess I’ve got nothing special to contribute here, apart from an inexplicable desire for my snowy and cold week in the UP to have given me some sort of Great Lakes shoreline spidey sense.  It’d also be fun to prove you can win this contest in under ten minutes without an all-singing, all-dancing multimedia spectacular to prove the answer correct.

Speaking of which:

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Wow, I thought this one had us. It’s so grainy and the black interior dominates the image. But we concentrated on two things: ice melting and the silo. Sounds like Great Lakes to us! Off we went scanning the coastlines looking for peninsulas. Finally, after making it all the way to Niagra and around from an Ohio start, Duluth looked just right.

The silo was easy to identify, so the hunt was on for the photo spot. We knew it had to be pretty high, so the line through Enger tower made it obvious. A quick check of the observation windows confirmed it. The photo was taken from Enger Tower, Enger Tower Dr, Duluth, MN, probably from the highest window (not the top deck) facing east.

Enger Tower commands a fine view over Duluth Harbor and St. Louis bay. The hill and 80′ of tower brings the altitude to 531′ above Lake Superior. Enger Tower was dedicated by Crown Prince Olav and Crown Princess Martha of Norway on June 15, 1939 in honor of Bert Enger, a native of Norway who came to the US and became a successful furniture dealer.

Since you liked the collage I sent last week, I thought I’d include another:

VFYW Duluth map.002

Since that reader also nearly won the contest from Cartagena last week and was the only Duluth guesser to have guessed a difficult window in the past without winning, she receives the prize this week.

See everyone else for the next contest at noon on Saturday!

(Archive)

One final, last-minute submission:

You’ve selected a photo for this week’s contest that befits the name of your new digs; it was a real Beast.  This is my first attempt at a public guess after playing along since the beginning, and even before.  (I was one who also kept the location hidden and tried to guess every day before you started the contest.)

I almost gave up on this week’s photo, and then it hit me.  Although I never saw the inside – only the outside – this had to be a photo taken from the inside of what used to be my future wife’s room.  And she confirmed it with a picture from her scrapbook that her chambermaid took shortly before I made land in my ship and clambered up the side of her father’s lighthouse (most people think it was a castle tower) to elope with her:

VFYW 4-3-11(Rapunzel)

I had to cut her hair short and tie it to the bar over the window so we could make it back down. But it grew back.

Unable To Pull The Lever?

James Joyner is unsure of his vote:

Having voted Republican in every presidential race since I was first eligible (1984), there’s a non-zero chance that I’ll find myself unable to support the nominee this year. And that’s despite very intense disagreements with President Obama on core policy issues.  If they lose me, they’ll find themselves on the other side of a Mondale or Dukakis level landslide. And likely conclude that their problem was being insufficiently true to their core principles.

Which is why it may get far worse before it gets better. Can you imagine Mike Huckabee's foreign policy? Or Sarah Palin's diplomacy?