The Validity Of Asking Empirical Questions, Ctd

A reader writes:

I felt skeptical reading the Salon articles about the eyewitness accounts, not exactly sure why. Then I read your post on them. Part of me felt relieved that you seemed to feel reassured by the New Yorker columnist and all of the new evidence that Salon brought forward. And then I saw that Israeli TV photo … and suddenly, I became skeptical again.

A number of years ago, I was a designer at one of the top maternity companies in the country.

I'd put the job out of my mind, as it was something I took only for the money. We used non-pregnant fit models and put fake bellies on them (like these). They are sort of convincing if you aren't looking closely, but, really, they don't look real. And at least from the bad Israeli TV photo, I had a flashback to those days.

None of Palin's "pregnant Trig photos" look real either, in the same, flat belly way. The story of the reporter looking at Palin's swollen belly through a thin jersey tee shirt … I doubt any reporter is going to stare at it, but you could definitely fake it with one of these bellies. I can tell the difference though; I know these fake bellies. It is not as easy to prove anything from a photo because of angles, lighting, retouching, etc.  But I know what they look like in clothes versus what a real pregnant belly looks like. I had honestly put that work experience out of my mind until today.

If you want to let it go, so be it. Clearly, you'd probably sound like a kook to bring this up. But I am more skeptical now, pending other evidence.

Losing The Invisible Primary

Jonathan Bernstein insists that Haley Barbour actually did run for president:

[W]e call this period the "invisible primary" for a reason: just like in the state-by-state primaries to come next year, the current contest has winners and losers, and the losers tend to drop out. Now, some potential candidates really haven't contested the invisible primary…I haven't read anything, for example, about Jeb Bush. So I'll chalk him up as a "did not run." But those who hired staff, sought endorsements, traveled to Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina — they contested the invisible primary. They were candidates for 2012. Even if they didn't quite make it all the way to 2012.

An Obamacon’s Lament

Wick Allison, the former publisher of National Review who endorsed Obama in September 2008, now recants:

[It's] clear that on the two fundamental problems of self-government, there is only one party in America. Those two fundamental problems were identified in the Federalist Papers as money and power. With a few notable exceptions such as Tom Coburn, Bernie Sanders, and Rand Paul in the Senate, and Paul Ryan and Ron Paul in the House, minor differences on these two questions spur most of the public debate. But once in power, the two sides fundamentally agree. In office, Obama has accepted Bush’s expansion of the executive as a settled doctrine, ordered the military into a war without even the pretence of protecting national security, and continued his predecessor’s ruinous fiscal policies (and doubled down on them at that).

So, putting aside labels and partisan loyalties and marginal squabbles, ask yourself as I am asking myself: does it even matter who is president now? Judging solely by his actions, would there be any major difference on the two central questions of American government if the president today were Bush, McCain, Clinton, or Obama?

I'm as dismayed as Wick on Afghanistan, state secrets, Gitmo, and the failure to lead on the debt. But I think he exaggerates.

If McCain or Clinton had been in office, I think we would have already bombed Iran and invaded Libya with ground troops. As for the fiscally ruinous policies, surely we have to make an exception for the biggest downturn since the 1930s. It is one thing to ramp up spending on war and entitlements when you are not in a depression, it's another to back a stimulus to prevent the bottom falling out of the entire world economy.

I would have been more enthusiastic about Obama's foreign policy if he hadn't been trounced by the Bibi faction in Washington, hadn't completely gone wobbly on Libya, and hadn't capitulated to Rahm on fear of terrorism. But compared with McCain? We are very lucky to have a calm hand at the top.

Hampster Judges!

Opponents of marriage equality want to throw out Prop 8 Judge Vaughn Walker's pro-equality ruling because Walker is gay. Adam Serwer unpacks this argument. Neil Sinhababu extends this anti-gay logic to include the animal kingdom:

I've gone from seeing this as an offensive argument grounded in thinly disguised antigay prejudice to appreciating the awesome consequences it would have for jurisprudence. The US Supreme Court regularly decides cases that address the rights that all Americans have. So in order to make sure that those decisions were made by impartial justices, we'd have to put foreigners whose rights wouldn't be affected on the Supreme Court. But that might not be enough. Since some Supreme Court decisions address the human rights of both Americans and foreigners, impartiality requires that we assign those decisions to animal judges.

(Hat tip: Bernstein)

Yglesias Award Nominee

"It's just something I believe is leading our country down a path of destruction and it just is not serving any good purpose. … I think we really just need to move on. Everybody's had two years to prove, if they wanted to, that he was not born in Hawaii. They haven't come up with any of that kind of proof," – Arizona governor Jan Brewer.

More important, we have clear evidentiary proof that he was born in America.

Which Birth Certificate?

Ben Smith thinks I’ve glossed over a major difference between Obama’s birth certificate and Trig’s:

The Obama conspiracy theory had bearing on his eligibility for the White House. Palin, by contrast, isn’t running for anything, and if she were, the constitutional requirement bears on your own birth, not your kids’. If Obama hadn’t released his birth certificate, it wouldn’t have been unreasonable to ask for it. Indeed, reporters are supposed to ask obnoxious questions. But Trig Palin isn’t running for president, and that makes this fixation a bit harder for me to get exercised about.

 Justin Elliott’s response to me makes the same point:

[I]n the case of Obama, his place of birth presented a potentially urgent constitutional problem. If Obama had been born abroad, there would have been questions about his eligibility to be president, hinging on the murky definition of the phrase “natural-born citizen.” Absurd as it all seemed, there was a reason in 2008 for a reporter to ask the Obama campaign for a copy of the birth certificate. (And remember: Obama wasn’t the only ’08 candidate who faced questions from the press about the circumstances of his birth.)

The parentage of Trig Palin presents no similarly urgent issue.

Agreed. But if the only basis for asking for documentary evidence of various biographical facts in a politician’s campaign is that they pertain to core legal eligibility for public office, then there would be no journalism at all. On what grounds did reporters uncover that Richard Blumenthal had lied about his war record? Surely not that it would have legally disbarred him from office. The man is still in office. But Blumenthal’s war record was only a minor theme in his biography and his mis-statements were few and far between. They were not an integral part of his campaign’s message or a central part of his appeal to his base. And there was no obvious reason to doubt him. The story was even ginned up by his political opponent in a campaign. And yet the New York Times rightly had no qualms about running a big story refuting his occasional untrue statements with empirical data. And Politico rightly had no qualms doing its own investigation. How does Justin defend this, given his current refusal to get on the phone and ask Palin for proof? Or talk to more than other journalists?

Palin, moreover, unlike Blumenthal, has reiterated her birth and pregnancy stories many many times. She has written a book detailing it all. She has been obsessed with rebutting it since it first emerged months before she hit the national spotlight – and yet has consistently refused to do so by what Frank Bailey called the “simple solution”. She held up her newborn child at the Republican national convention. She ran for vice-president of the US – not even the Senate. Her local newspaper tried to clear all this up – only to be stonewalled by Palin. Her doctor refused to take calls from the New York Times which ran a puff-piece on the whole thing. But Salon is uninterested. And Politico won’t go there.

The question before us is: why? Are they scared? Or squeamish? No journalist has any business being either. And simply stating the following is a cop-out:

We’re prepared to do that right here and now: Sarah Palin, we’d be happy to see and publish your medical records. But the point of our package is that Palin simply doesn’t need to do this — there is no credible evidence to suggest that anyone other than Sarah Palin is the mother of Trig.

Has Salon ever aired the countless questions so many have had about this bizarre pregnancy? Or the persistent disbelief around it? About the wild ride? By not even acknowledging the natural skepticism of people toward these strange narratives, by arguing there is nothing fishy here at all without even going into what people have found fishy, is also a cop-out. It’s basically an insult to the many people who remain genuinely puzzled by all this.

This blog, moreover, has diligently offered up evidence on both sides. Salon will not publish anything that might counter their a priori position. I mean: how many politicians in history have claimed that they gave a political speech while experiencing contractions? If that isn’t de facto curious and remarkable enough to be worth asking about, what is? And yet no one – even those supportive of her – will go near that question. Why on earth not? Here’s what counts for journalism today:

“She went into labor and got an airplane to go back to Alaska — that’s pretty cool!”

If that’s your standard of skepticism in today’s press corps, you get to host Meet The Press.

There is also the matter of consistency. When a politician has publicly claimed she has produced a birth certificate and hasn’t, is it illegitimate for the press to ask why she simply lied about this? Can any sane person misremember such a thing? And if she’s claimed she has released it, what on earth is the ethical reason for not asking her to do it along with medical records? When she publicly derides skeptics in speech after speech, is it not the press’s duty to see if her derision has empirical validity? Or are we skeptics supposed to just sit back and be mocked by a pathological liar putting her own credibility against ours?

We all have cognitive biases. I have one – profound skepticism of anything Palin says – and may be judging evidence in ways that others wouldn’t. But so do Justin and Ben and Weigel who have an interest in dismissing the possibility that they may have missed uncovering the biggest hoax in American political history. That same cognitive bias question applies to Loy and Quinn. It does not mean they they may not be right. It just means that their cognitive bias is as real as my own.

It seems to me that when some simple, readily available medical records could end this excruciating debate in one easy swoop – and could have more than two years ago – it is professional negligence that the MSM won’t even ask for such proof, and devote far more energy to defending their own past than the facts at hand.