Month: April 2011

Kevin Drum thinks raising taxes by a third won't pinch American pocketbooks significantly. Megan McArdle goes another round:

In order to raise taxes to the 25% of GDP that Kevin wants, all taxes need to rise by at least a third, not just income taxes: excise taxes, corporate income taxes, payroll taxes. … [F]or the poorest 20% of Americans (who make less than $20,000 a year, with an average income of $11,500), taxes go from about $660 to about $1320.  For the middle quintile (making an average of $50,000 a year), taxes go from around $7,000 to over $12,000.  For those in the top quintile, with an average income of $167,000, taxes jump from a $41,000 to $62,000.  

That's what I thought Megan meant. I'm sorry if I may have confused Kevin. For my part, leaving aside the debate on spending, I favor revenue-positive tax reform, and a phased-in gas tax directly apportioned to defense spending. If we are to sustain an empire, can we please pay for it? And isn't taxing gas the most effective way to move away from the carbon economy that requires us to remain a global hegemon?

I, for one, do not find it odd that a party that can debate the idea that the earth is 6,000 years' old is also capable of believing that a birth certificate is not a birth certificate. The criterion is not empirical evidence but dogged, reactionary hostility to anything libruls believe. We have left the realm of reality and entered the world, previousy exclusively occupied by the pomo-left, of identity as truth. "We are right because we are white" is no different in logic than "we are right because we are black" which is perilously close to where the academic left went in the 1990s. A reader adds:

To sustain belief in the birther conspiracy, one must first believe that Obama's short-form birth certificate, which satisfies State Department requirements for passport issuance, is nevertheless a rare example of undisclosed fraud. Then one must conclude that the Honolulu newspaper announcements of Obama's birth are exceptionally rare examples that actually occurred in a faraway land, which must be particularly uncommon in a remote locale like Hawaii. In order to be a birther, one must have blind faith in the exceedingly improbable.

If Palin's story about her Incredible Journey to deliver Trig is true, for unnecessary travel she will have surely outdistanced every other Down Syndrome mother in labor by a factor of much more than 10, and possibly more than 100.  Throw in the fact that a golden shot at the White House hung in the balance (and that no other such mother would have had similarly glorious opportunities), and one quickly realizes that the official Trig narrative is exceptionally unlikely. In order to believe the official story of Trig's birth, one must have blind faith in the exceedingly improbable.

The scientist is very rarely able to obtain positive confirmation of hypotheses; her contribution more often comes from eliminating improbable alternatives.  This is essentially the value of statistical inference.   There's something almost comforting about the Republican Rump's hostility toward science and also their willingness, in the case of Obama birtherism and belief in Palin's account of Trig's birth, to accept the wildly improbable without criticism.  Those folks in the Republican Rump may be nuts, but at least they are internally consistent in their nuttiness.

Ed Kilgore on what Trump has proven:

Kill off Trump’s candidacy and the demand [for radicalism] will remain, leaving an opening for yet another demagogic charlatan to take his place.

Jonathan Bernstein doesn't think Republicans will nominate a truly crazy candidate, but he says it has become "more and more likely that the eventual nominee will have to spend a lot of time and energy pretending to be crazy, or at least working at ways to appeal to a constituency that wants to hear crazy things." I think Bernstein over-estimates the crazy in the GOP under the country's first black president and the faltering denial of America's slide in the new century.

Nate Silver measures media coverage of Palin. It has declined dramatically:

[I]f she is serious about running for president in 2012 — something that the conventional wisdom is now betting against — she probably needs to take some concrete steps toward doing so. Now that there is an actual primary getting underway, and it includes other “interesting” candidates like Mr. Trump and Michele Bachmann, she can’t count on coverage by virtue of her personality alone.

May I note, however, that even at her ebb, she is ahead of everyone but Trump and gets twice the press as Romney.

Plouffe wet dream 1: Trump destroys Romney, allowing Palin to win. Obama destroys Palin.

Plouffe wet dream 2: Romney beats Trump and Palin; Trump goes rogue as an Independent, makes Palin his veep. Obama destroys both in an electoral college landslide (see PPP on Iowa).

Reader thoughts here. Kevin Drum sighs:

This is one of the most annoying tropes in existence, on both the left and the right. The point of laws is to provide a level playing field, and no one is a hypocrite for following existing law even if they think it should be changed. That goes for congressmen who accept earmarks even though they think earmarks should be banned, it goes for drivers who park for free on city streets even though they think parking meters should be installed, and it goes for rich people who pay taxes at the current rate even though they think that rate is too low.

Karl Smith agrees:

I would like is a social contract in which we all agreed to do right by each other. Yet, in the absence of such a contract I fully intend to ruthlessly pursue my self-interest.

Chris Mooney links vaccine denialism to the political left. His caveat:

What’s tricky is, there’s not a standard left-right political ideology underlying this. Rather, it seems more associated with a Whole Foods and au natural lifestyle that, while certainly more prominent on the bicoastal left, isn’t the same as being outraged by inequality or abuses of the free market.

David Frum adds that "anti-vaccination views show up on the political right, among politicians like Rep. Dan Burton and popular commentators like Melissa Clouthier":

You see as much enthusiasm for homeopathy, chiropractic, herbal remedies and other forms of folk medicine on the far right as on the far left, and for the same fundamental reason: distrust of expertise, of the scientific method, and of the good intentions of the authorities. The American political landscape is shaped in much weirder ways than Beltway debates over taxes and spending usually allow.

And don't forget the anti-conspiratorial HuffPo!

Daniel Murphy found "The Five Most Insane 1-900 Numbers from the '80s and '90s" (one seen above). A reader writes:

The other major part of PrimeTel's business is the brokering of all those 800 numbers.  While they surely benefit when consumers misdial and are lured into a phone sex business, even more attractive may be what happens when a major company realizes that a significant percentage of their callers are misdialing.  Such a company would be willing to pay PrimeTel tens of thousands of dollars (sometimes hundreds of thousands) for the privilege of transferring ownership of that 800 number.  I know this from personal experience because I have bought numerous toll free numbers from PrimeTel on behalf of my company.

Another writes:

This reminds me of a snafu that happened during my time in DC politics. At an anti-tax rally one day, an 800 number was splayed on the many placards, banners and the speakers' podium. By calling 1-800-CUT-GOVT, concerned taxpayers could register their displeasure with Congress' big-spending ways. Thing is, the number redirected to an anal-sex hotline, replete with moaning and panting …

Today on the Dish, Andrew laid out a modest proposal to lower healthcare costs, we gawked at what we pay versus the rest of the world, while real Americans would rather cut defense than Medicare. Josh Marshall, Andrew and Politifact parsed whether Ryan's plan would end Medicare, Catherine Rampell cautioned us to examine what's covered by our current healthcare plans (hint: not much). Obama didn't tax himself too highly, readers came to his defense, and Avent had faith that DC will tackle the debt. The GOP's Birther problem ballooned, Andrew felt more alienated than ever from the GOP, while drawing closer to understanding Obama.

Palin plummeted in Alaska, and Andrew reiterated his respect for Trig, while still demanding some real answers. Romney cowered before Trump, we ran the numbers on Trump as an independent, and we held out hope for a libertarian candidate like Gary Johnson to end the drug war. Americans wanted limited government (in war), and Egyptians wanted an Islamic state like Americans believe in Birtherism.

Andrew reeled from the loss of two missed war journalists, Sebastian Junger honored them, and remembered how the AIDS epidemic changed real attitudes about homosexuality in America. Dahlia Lithwick faced off with Ramesh Ponnuru on the war on Roe v Wade, and David Link quelled our fears about DOMA's defense. China dominated the beer market, E.D. Kain longed for alternatives to college, and the drug war, not the drugs, caused violence on the streets. The Dish waded into the Deaf Culture wars, and readers laughed at a possible Poseur alert who loves their mobile device.  Cooked eggs helped make us fat, Andrew can't multitask when Judge Judy's on, and Lady Gaga almost rejected Weird Al.

Dissents of the day here, cool ad watch here, correction of the day here, chart of the day here, quotes for the day here and here, VFYW here, MHB here, FOTD here, and a poem for Holy Thursday here.

–Z.P.

This poll finding just doesn't get the attention in Washington that it deserves:

Given the choice of cutting military, Social Security or Medicare spending as a way to reduce the overall budget, 45 percent chose military cuts, compared with those to Social Security (17 percent) or Medicare (21 percent.)

So why are we not debating which wars to end and forces to demobilize rather than how to save Medicare? Why does the capital have such a different set of priorities than the rest of the country?

Sebastian Junger:

I’m in the truck with you. I’m imagining those last minutes. You’re on your back watching the tops of the buildings jolt by and the blue Mediterranean sky beyond them. I almost drowned once, and when I finally got back to the beach I was all alone and I just lay there watching the clouds go by. I’d never really thought about clouds before, but there they were, all for me, just glorious. Maybe you saw those clouds, too, but you weren’t out of it yet, and you probably knew it. I know what you were thinking: What a silly way to die. What a silly, selfish, ridiculous mistake to have made.

Don’t think that, brother.