Ben Jervey picked apart the Energy Information Agency's "Annual Energy Outlook" for 2011:
Whether we dramatically expand offshore drilling or stop selling offshore drilling leases entirely, there will be essentially no impact on the price of gasoline until 2020. If we look out as far as 2030, the difference would only be $0.05—$3.59 per gallon as opposed to $3.64 per gallon. The idea that offshore drilling would significantly ease the pain of high gas prices is a canard.
He contrasts it with an outlook that focuses on increasing miles per gallon in cars:
By 2030, if we increase fuel efficiency in cars 6 percent every year for just eight years starting in 2017, per gallon gas prices would be $3.44 per gallon. Compare that to the $3.59 per gallon price that we'd get under the massive expansion of offshore drilling. That 6 percent scenario wasn't pulled out of thin air—it's a legitimate proposal being debated in D.C. that would yield a fleet-wide standard of 60+ miles per gallon by 2025. (See Go60mpg.org) Even the less ambitious 3 percent increase in gas mileage would bring about cheaper gas ($3.51 per gallon) than maxing out our offshore oil reserves.
The Dish 