With Huckabee out, speculation about the 2012 GOP nominee has begun in earnest. George Will:
I think we know with reasonable certainty that standing up there on the west front of the Capitol on January 20th, 2013 will be one of three people. Obama, Pawlenty and Daniels. I think that's it.
[T]he most recent available polling has Romney with more support than Pawlenty, Daniels, and Bachmann combined–with a Bachmann to spare. The notion that we “know with reasonable certainty” that either Pawlenty or Daniels will win is nonsense–unless Will figures that no other nominee has a shot against Obama. But there’s no reason to think Pawlenty and Daniels have more national appeal than Romney.
The ultimate beneficiary of Huck’s demurral … is likely to be Tim Pawlenty. His all-in-for-Iowa strategy now looks considerably more promising, and he is appealing to many pragmatic social conservatives as an electable alternative to the unpalatable Mitt Romney and (if he runs) Mitch Daniels. A field without Huckabee, moreover, is a field without a viable deep-fried southern option, which could be great news for a guy like T-Paw in South Carolina and other southern states.
I don’t believe Romney could win a Romney-Pawlenty contest. But he would almost certainly win a Romney-Bachmann race, and could well win a Romney-Pawlenty-Bachmann race. So to the extent he can boost her, it makes sense for him to do so. Having been on the losing end of this maneuver, Romney, I assume, knows how it’s done.
[T]he immediate problem for the Palinites is neither organizational nor financial. It is the fact that, as John wrote last week, her political career imploded and she appears to have gone to ground and abandoned the field to others, such as Michelle Bachmann, who is well placed to garner the affection of her core constituency. Sarah Palin’s moment looks to have come and gone.
Especially with Huckabee handing her, gift wrapped, the USA’s evangelical base, it seems obvious that Sarah will announce her candidacy for president later this year: if she doesn’t, a year from now people won’t even remember how she spells her name. (Is it p-a-l-i-n, or p-a-l-l-i-n, as in “pallin’ around with terrorists”?) … Sarah’s greatest fear is irrelevance.
I think Mike Huckabee's decision not to run for president increases the chances that Michelle Bachmann could win the nomination. In my view, the three main contenders for the nomination are, in order, 1) Tim Pawlenty, 2) A party establishment-friendly Republican not currently running, such as Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan, and 3) Bachmann. Everybody else, including Sick Man Of The GOP Field Mitt Romney, falls into the longshot bin.
I do think Daniels will get in, which will reduce Romney’s odds considerably. But at this point, the Indiana governor has every reason to wait another six months or so to declare his candidacy — because at the rate we’re going, all of his prospective rivals will have either bowed out or self-destructed by then.
I think Daniels’ natural constituency is the voter who wants the wonk who does not trust Mitt Romney’s or Gingrich’s conservative credentials and who also does not care much about social issues. The voter going here leans establishmentarian, but puts a value on conservative street cred.
While no one was watching, Daniels just engaged in a bit more self-destruction of his own. Thanks to one of my commenters, I came across this report that Daniels had floated Condi Rice’s name as a hypothetical VP nominee. Rice is not pro-life, and that is just one of the problems with Daniels’ hypothetical suggestion. If Daniels weren’t already under fire for his “truce” proposal, this wouldn’t amount to much, but it reinforces all of the doubts that social conservatives have about Daniels despite his obvious credentials as a social conservative.
The Dish 