Chait reads the last rites. He uses the above ad from the NY-26 special election as evidence:
Yes, there's a Tea Party spoiler. But the important fact here is that the Republican is trying to win not only by abandoning the Ryan message but by attacking her opponent from the left
Both Nate Silver and Charlie Cook caution that special election doesn't mean much for 2012. Dave Weigel differs:
[That] American Crossroads, the American Action Network, the Tea Party Express, the DCCC and the NRCC are all playing in here indicates that it's close. Cook's own rating service says the race is a toss-up. I'll find out why shortly, but is it as easy to imagine a toss-up if Republicans were riding high and not struggling to explain and defend their Medicare plan?
The Dish 