Stephen Walt previews Obama's Middle East speech today, and how most of the characters involved are "trapped":
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is trapped too: by his ideological devotion to the dream of "Greater Israel," by the even more hawkish stance of the settlers and his Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, and by the uncertainties created by the recent upheavals in the Arab world. He can't do the right thing and move swiftly towards the creation of a viable Palestinian state–even if he wanted to, which is highly unlikely–though this step would end the demographic threat to Israel's democratic and Jewish character and remove the main reason why people around the world are increasingly critical of Israel's conduct.
Marc Tracy lays out the importance of the coming week:
Tomorrow, Obama gives a big speech on the Arab Spring; on Friday, Prime Minister Netanyahu comes to the White House; on Sunday, Obama speaks to the AIPAC conference; on Tuesday, Bibi addresses the U.S. Congress. The next several days will probably dictate the shape of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at least through the 2012 U.S. elections. Tragically, the Fatah-Hamas unity deal—something that in some form had to happen before a state could exist (since how could you have a state encompassing two discreet areas governed by rival authorities?)—has likely foreordained an administration policy of taking no more bold moves on the peace front and nixing Palestinian statehood should it come to a binding U.N. vote in September. … [W]hile I don’t know how I’d feel if I were a Palestinian and suffered the occupation and the degradation of statelessness that they do, it is silly to expect the U.S. president to respond to this decision with anything other than a sad shrug and, in September, a veto.
Jonathan S. Tobin takes a more pessimistic approach:
What Obama seems most interested in is a statement that will buttress his attempts at outreach to the Arab world. But what the president fails to understand is that his attempt to link the struggle between Israel and the Palestinians to the Arab Spring won’t increase his influence in the region. Israel and the United States are both irrelevant to the protests. And nothing Barack Obama does will change that.
Jacob Stokes and Kelsey Hartigan drafted the speech they'd like to hear:
The president must also double down on calling out Iran's hypocrisy in seeking to claim the movement as a second Islamic awakening, even as it oppresses its own citizens at home. He must firmly rebut the violent crackdown in Syria and elsewhere. And eventually – even if not in this speech – he must put forward a plan for settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Lacking a resolution, America's relationship with the Arab world will always be fractured.
(Photo: Supporters of the people of Yemen march a past a prayer timing clock during a demonstration calling for the departure of President Abdullah Ali Saleh and his regime May 13, 2011 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. By Mario Tama/Getty Images)
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