Victory?

Jonathan Rauch celebrates this poll:

As I argued here, when moral disapproval falls below a certain critical mass, the whole superstructure of discrimination will eventually topple with it. … Political polls bob up and down, but never in my career of covering politics and society have I seen such rapid movement of public opinion on a core social values. But I think one must bow before the accumulating evidence and say this: we are at a Berlin Wall moment in gay-straight relations. Right now.

Adam Serwer fears a backlash. Steve Chapman notes it will not affect the GOP one iota:

The recent emergence of a majority that favors same-sex marriage constitutes a turning point. So did the Battle of Gettysburg — and at that moment, the Civil War was only about half over.

I take Chapman's point. There are moments when history shifts, but those most threatened by change dig in even harder. Think of the Arab Spring and Netanyahu. It takes a while before tectonic change reshapes the landscape. And sometimes it's brutal when it comes.