A reader writes:
Perry has indeed been a driving force in favor of that pre-abortion ultrasound requirement bill. By doing so, I wonder if he hasn't lost himself some votes even among pro-life women. That bill doesn't just require the woman to undergo an ultrasound prior to abortion. It requires, among other things, that the ultrasound be trans-vaginal in many cases (that is exactly what it sounds like) rather than the external sonogram most pregnant women are given.
This is because, as a practical matter, a trans-vaginal ultrasound may be the only way to meet the "medical standards" requirements of the law with respect to women who are seeking abortions in their first ten to twelve weeks of pregnancy. Furthermore, there is no exemption for victims of rape or incest. So a 14-year-old victim of rape, for instance, would have to submit to having a large probe inserted into her vagina by a stranger before she would be able to have an abortion. (And yes, Perry, along with the Texas legislature, knew exactly how big one of those probes is, since Representative Carol Alvarado brought one to the debate.)
Don't even get me started on how many otherwise staunch conservatives Perry has pissed off in the education field. I don't write him off as a candidate, and it's true he gives good stump. I'm sure he would put up a good showing and sucker a lot of people into voting for him. But the attack ads will write themselves.
Another writes:
You said: "Perry yesterday upped his conservative cred by signing a law requiring women to get a sonogram before receiving an abortion." And that's not all; currently in the Texas Legislature right now, Perry is lobbying against using the $9 billion+ "Rainy-Day Fund" (basically a reserve fund for the budget) to balance the state deficit this session, which is valued at anywhere between $15B and $27B, depending on who you talk to. Why doesn't he want to use it? So he can say to the conservatives supporting him, "I balanced the budget without using the piggy bank!"
Meanwhile, the estimates of lost education jobs (including teachers) by this budget is expected to hit 90k+. One site tracking the losses already has 12k lost with only 5% of the districts reporting. Currently it looks like the legislature will use around $3B to pass its budget, kicking most of the budget woes until next session (which will be higher, due to accounting tricks they're using to pass this year's budget). And in Texas, talk of raising taxes is out of the question. Even somewhat reasonable ones such as indexing the gas tax to inflation (last time done? early 1990s) or increasing the sales tax by a penny have been quickly and forcefully shot down.
This, however, was not classified as an "emergency item" by Perry this session. Nope, that revered status went to your aforementioned sonogram bill, a bill preventing "sanctuary cities", yet another voter ID bill (we get one every two years here in TX), eminent domain, and finally, a "loser pays" tort reform bill. Nevermind the recession.
All these cuts while Texas has the leanest per capita spending rates in the nation: per capita state government expenditures are ~$3,800 . It is also second to last [pdf] in high school graduation rates, 47th [pdf] in spending per student, second worst in food insecurity rates, and one-third of the population is in poverty.
So while I would agree with your prior readers' assessments that one should not ignore Perry – he is very shrewd politically – he's got a lot of tar on his hands to deal with right now. I don't see him running until 2016, when the economy's a bit better, the deficit is mostly handled, and he doesn't have tens of thousands of teachers showing up at the state capitol to protests cuts. But I could definitely see him running then.