Nate Silver handicaps the top-tier GOP candidates. He gives Romney a 40% chance of winning:
Mr. Romney is perceived as having run a slow-and-steady campaign — but he’s made the largest gains of any Republican candidate in the last two months, to an average of 26 percent of the vote in polls conducted in June from 18 percent in those conducted in April. Some of this is a result of other Republican candidates’ dropping from the field. Yet while candidates like Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich have remained flat in polling, Mr. Romney has gained ground.
(Photo: Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney listens to small business owners at the Brewery Bar IV on June 20, 2011 in Aurora, Colorado. By John Moore/Getty Images)
The Dish 