Cuts First?

In order to achieve fiscal balance, the Dish has endorsed a mix of tax increases and spending cuts. Mickey Kaus says I'm wrong to believe that we "must have a full solution for each and every policy problem":

Opponents of bloated government don’t trust politicians to make cuts if extra revenues are in the offing. Neither, sensibly, do many voters.  But if you make dramatic cuts, demonstrate you’ve sweated out the fat–and there’s still a deficit, you’ve got a shot at getting a tax increase through. Cuts First!

Jared Bernstein differs:

The case for revenues is a simple one.  Given the level of deficit reduction to which both parties are committed, around $4 trillion over 10-12 years, if you try to get there solely by cutting spending, you’ll be forced to cut too deeply into parts of government that vulnerable people depend on.  In short, you’ll do more harm than good.

Ezra Klein eyes defense cuts:

If you want to get liberals excited about spending cuts, the defense budget is where you start. The Congressional Budget office will credit you with $1.4 trillion in savings if you put forward a credible plan to draw down the war — which is something that the administration is promising to do anyway — and that's before you even get into the defense budget proper. But Lori Montgomery and Paul Kane report that the GOP is open to digging into that honey pot, too. "House Republican leaders said they have found a surprising willingness to consider defense cuts that would have been unthinkable five years ago."

I must say Mickey's point seems powerful. I was even thinking that over in my head before he put it, as is his wont, so crisply into words. Let's say Obama persuaded the GOP to include historic defense cuts and serious tax reform without any revenue increases. The likelihood of future tax hikes – once the unpopularity of many of the cuts emerge – becomes inevitable. The key, as Mickey notes, is to prevent the size of the cuts from derailing the economy in the short term, and to endure long enough to persuade the middle that tax hikes are necessary for our fiscal health, while disarming the Tea Party.

My worry about this is simply that the GOP will pocket the spending cuts and refuse to raise revenues at any point. And the public is actually fine with raising taxes on the rich already. And the Democrats would have a huge cow. But it's a useful thought experiment.