Will Perry Run?

Matt Lewis reports that "reliable sources in Texas tell me serious preparations are being made for Governor Rick Perry, 61, to seek the Republican nomination for president." Nate Silver notes the timing:

Although a candidate could theoretically enter the race very late — even after the first primaries had been held — they’d be relying either on a complete implosion of the Republican field (in which case they might hope to be selected at a brokered convention) or on running some sort of dubious, gadget-play candidacy. But we’re nearing the end of the period when a candidate could enter and run a more-or-less traditional campaign — and still have time to raise a lot of money, hire lots of staff, and compete vigorously in the early nominating states.

The Emails Are Coming! The Emails Are Coming! Ctd

Priceless:

The public records requests were first made soon after John McCain picked Palin as his vice presidential nominee, touching off a long, and at times bizarre, paper chase. When the media outlets first requested the e-mails, Palin’s office pegged the price for producing them at $15 million. The fee eventually fell to $725.97.

Doomed Candidates And The Polls

Chait explains why he dismissed Gingrich from the start:

One lesson of Gingrich's hilarious implosion is that we need to use our heads when assessing the prospects of various presidential contenders. I've taken some unconventional positions on the odds of various candidates — talking down favorite Mitt Romney, talking up Tim Pawlenty when he was a longshot, insisting that Michelle Bachmann could have an impact — because I think the polls are a very limited tool at this point. Based on the polls, Newt Gingrich had a reasonably good chance to win the nomination, hovering around 10% for much of the year.

But I never took his candidacy with even the slightest bit of seriousness.

Me neither. Because he's a dumb, ill-disciplined, mean-spirited blowhard. But good for Chait for being so emphatic about it.

When Did We Become Rome? The Clinton Impeachment

We're asking readers: At what point did our political system become decadent?  One writes:

The Clinton impeachment, hands down.  The long list of ridiculous investigations leading up to it were bad enough, but taking a step designed to remove an elected President over a personal affair showed that the view of politics over country now ruled the day.  The proceedings were political Kabuki Theater at its basest.

Another writes:

It was nothing but aggrandizing personalities out for political gain based on a personal misjudgment on the president's part, the country be damned – party and personality above all.  That was the political manifestation. The social and economic manifestation of our Late Imperial phase was indicated by the 9/11 attacks when the barbarians rode in on our Appian Way to pillage the Forum.

Another:

I have a vivid memory of reading the Kenneth Starr report on Monica Lewinsky one afternoon in the company of a number of my then-colleagues.  Looking back, it is almost embarrassing how much we all giggled and snickered over that document. 

(It is also interesting to consider that that must have been one of the first, if not the first, source documents for a major news event that we all read over the Internet.)  I think that was the point at which I knew we had begun our decline and fall.  Probably Lewinskydress what Clinton said about the cigar, and knowing the circumstances in which he said it, and that he was our head of state and at the time in his official office (in every respect), is what put me over the top.  And if that didn't do it, surely the arguments about the meaning of the word “is,” the blue dress, and the impeachment proceedings would have.  Any time a society is laughing at its leader the way we were all laughing at Bill Clinton, you have to know that something serious has ruptured in that society.

But I think the better way to think about the question is to ask not when did we realize that the political system has become decadent, but to ask when the decadence actually began.  I think the best answer to that question is that it began before many of us were born: when Lyndon Johnson began lying to the country about Vietnam.  Moral authority is the most powerful kind of authority there is, and at that point, at which our political leaders lost our trust and respect, they lost any sort of moral authority over the citizenry.  In a democracy, where the people are sovereign, this means that we quite literally lost respect for ourselves.

Of course, what followed the Vietnam era did not help.  An interesting question is where would we be today if Humphrey beat Nixon in 1968, or if Watergate had never happened.  Jimmy Carter's national malaise (a word, I learned recently, he never actually uttered in his infamous speech) did not help either.  But it was all made possible, I think, by LBJ. 

I think this is a fascinating, even if depressing, question.  Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire is something I have always wanted to read.  I guess at this point I am saving it for retirement, but I suspect it is more topical than any of us would like to thank. Another fascinating question – and obviously I am far from the first person to think of this – is the extent to which our decline has been accelerated by modern information technology.  Vietnam was the first war covered on television, and I doubt I would have been laughing at Bill Clinton in quite the way I was without the Internet.  And let's not even talk about Weinergate.

Another:

I'm British and lived in the US during the second half of the '90s.  What I saw profoundly shocked me – I actually used the word "decadent" to describe it at the time.  It was the most extraordinary extra-democratic campaign and I'm thrilled that two of the ring-leaders' (Tom DeLay and Trent Lott) careers ended in disgrace.

By the way, it was an article of yours about Clinton that caused me to finally give up reading The Sunday Times.  My ONLY solace is that you are now writing some real sense about neo-cons, Palin et al so I'm an avid reader now.

The Biggest Protests Yet?

Heads up: the above clip is a "VERY graphic video, purportedly from Latakia, show[ing] a person shot in the head." This week's Friday protests against Assad appear unprecedented:

Razan Zeitouneh, a human rights lawyer in Damascus, has given the Guardian a report of activity in Syria. She said that this was the largest protest since the Arab Spring started, and the protests have taken place in almost every major city and town in the country, including Aleppo and Damascus. 

According to her report, 19 people have been killed, not including those killed in the Idlib region, near Jisr al Shughour, where a military perimeter prevents anyone from traveling in or out. The interesting piece of this part of her report, however, is that the military has advanced around Jisr al Shughour, but has yet to attack the town.

Until now, reports Al Jazeera. Track AJE's updates here. Enduring America has excellent coverage today:

1437 GMT: Many experts keep a watchful eye on Damascus and Aleppo, the two largest cities in Syria, and cities that have not seen protests as large as many other cities in the country. As long as Aleppo and Damascus remain loyal to the Assad regime, there may be enough of a buffer for Assad to retain power.

Over the weeks, we've seen that buffer zone slowly erode. In Aleppo, many protests have taken place, mostly at night. In Damascus, we have many reports today of larger protests, and even some violence, signs that things may be changing there.

Today, we have this video (courtesy of Al Jazeera), uploaded by a Syrian activist. It claims to show dozens of pro-government thugs who can clearly be seen carrying assault rifles, shotguns, and clubs. The video would suggest that protests in Damascus have been limited by fear, not because of large support of the Assad regime.

1524 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has condemned Syria, saying that Turkey can no longer support the actions of the regime (video). Syria's list of allies grows thin, perhaps consisting only of Iran.

The Power Of AIPAC, Ctd

A reader writes:

Goldberg seriously misrepresents the arguments made by Walt and Mearsheimer in their book. “The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy” is a work written by two prominent Defensive Realists who were trying to understand why the US-Israeli relationship is still the way it is – they accepted Israel’s profound usefulness during the Cold War – when everything they know academically should now predict the US-Israeli relationship to be at least something less than a “special relationship”.

They do not blame the “special relationship” – or Israel’s American supporters – for most of the bad things that have happened to the US abroad in the last decade, as Goldberg claims, although they do blame it for skewing our perceived interests in a very critical region in the world and thus making our foreign policy less efficient and more costly. That stretch is a deliberate attempt to smear Walt and Mearsheimer as anti-Semities. Such attacks against men who have clearly and consistently stated their support for Zionism has done nothing but confirm their central thesis.

Besides, what makes a lobby powerful is not mass support. It is in fact a lack of mass opposition. That is why single-issue lobbies are so successful, and so much more so when the effect of such a lobby is something that happens overseas where American citizens are largely unaffected. That is why 2-1 support for even-handedness amongst the populace results in unanimity favoring Israel in Congress. Israel would not be friendless in Washington without a lobby. Israel would be a more responsible power without a lobby, because they would face the true costs of their actions without so much of their defense budget funded by Washington and without UNSC resolution-immunity. Without such a guarantee of US support, for instance, they would probably be falling over themselves to patch up their (critically) important relationship with Turkey.

Walt and Mearsheimer will be remembered by history as two of the truest friends of Israel. Their book is a huge reason there is even an American debate about this, and that could end up saving Israel from the Likud lobby in America. And if it is too late, they will be remembered as the only ones with the courage to try to do anything about it.

Palin’s “WTF”

She's done it before. And as one reader observed,

Didn’t Saint Ronald Reagan rather famously say he’d be willing to share missile defense technology with the Soviets?

Shhh. But if anyone wants to show up with an abbreviated poster at a Palin rally that says “Sarah – Tough For Us” – as another reader suggested – be my guest.