by Chris Bodenner
Justin Elliott recently followed up with Jeffrey Goldberg’s Atlantic cover story from September that assigned a >50% chance that Israel would bomb Iran by July 1:
Goldberg also pointed to several “interesting” developments after the publication of his
story: revelations about the Stuxnet worm dealing a blow to Iran’s nuclear program; a series of high-profile statements by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan opposing a strike on Iran as “stupid;” and communications between American officials and their Israeli counterparts that Goldberg said were prompted by his Atlantic story. He said that Obama officials reached out to the Israelis to reassure them that “we’ve got this” — but Goldberg added he’s not sure how much stock to put in those communications. […]
Goldberg still believes that in certain circumstances the current Israeli government would attack Iran’s nuclear sites. “Meir Dagan is doing what he’s doing now because he’s scared of an Israeli attack,” he said. “If you don’t think Bibi Netanyahu is crazy enough to launch an attack on Iran, you don’t understand this prime minister.”
Dagan has claimed credit for putting the brakes on Bibi, but Goldberg in his latest column contends that Dagan’s dissent is actually having the opposite effect:
His public denunciations may actually bring Israel closer to launching an attack. He has undermined the credibility of Israel’s deterrent posture. Western intelligence agencies, the Obama administration and the International Atomic Energy Agency all suspect that Iran’s leaders are moving steadily toward a nuclear bomb, less fearful of an Israeli strike than they were last year. The Iranians, intelligence officials told me, believe Dagan’s statements reflect the position of Israel’s defense establishment.
They don’t. But this perception is critical. If Israel does attack the Iranian nuclear program, it will in part be because Dagan undermined his country’s deterrent credibility.
Over at Goldblog, Jeffrey highlights the latest example of loyal opposition: the criticism of World Jewish Congress President Ronald Lauder toward Netanyahu’s approach to the upcoming UN vote on Palestinian statehood.
The Dish 