Nate Silver isn't sure. But he issues a warning to the GOP:
The risk for Republicans is that they exert so much influence on policy that the usual polarity of divided-government elections is reversed, and voters are as concerned about checking their influence as they are Mr. Obama’s.
Seth Masket says "no one knows who is winning or losing this thing":
One point I wouldn't mind hearing more of from the media in their coverage of debt ceiling negotiations: It is very, very hard to know who is "winning" and who is "losing" at any given point during a negotiation. In fact, those terms really aren't very meaningful until we know what the final agreement is. For example, I've heard some Democrats complain that Obama is getting rolled or that he's not "winning the argument," but it's really not clear what that means. If 60% of the American people primarily blamed Bush for the size of the debt, would that mean that Democrats had won the argument? 70% 100% And whatever that percentage is, does it have any bearing on the outcome of the negotiations?
The Dish 