Almost, says John Sides:
The new economic numbers and the trend in presidential approval bring us to this point: Barack Obama is on the cusp of becoming the underdog in the 2012 election. The outcome of the debt ceiling debate will not change this. In fact, the outcome is likely to make things even worse for Obama. A default would likely create economic chaos, and any deal will cut government spending, which seems likely to reduce economic growth further.
Elections are primarily referendums on the incumbent president (even under divided government). A weak economy hurts Obama. He cannot deflect the blame. The game plan for the Republican nominee is simple, at this point: talk about the economy. Full stop.
The Dish 