A reader writes:
I just read your post on Obama's phyrrhic defeat and I have to say that I think that you are really overlooking just how depressed Obama's base is about this agreement.
"For both Obama and the Republicans, a win-win scenario is therefore perfectly possible from now on, unless Obama has totally depressed his base or the GOP really wants to insist on an anti-government purity that isn't shared by the public. In other words, the drama of this deal is far greater than the actual substance. It's a tactical victory for the GOP; but for Obama, it could be a strategically pyrrhic defeat."
For the first time today, I got an e-mail from my little sister who does not follow politics closely at all. She was a first time voter in 2008. She is exactly the profile of the type of voter Obama will need again in 2012.
Her e-mail to me had the subject line: "I am done."
I opened the e-mail and she had written only one line: "I cannot support a President who seems incapable of standing up to bullies."
My sister was not focused on the policy merits of the deal. All she was paying attention to were the atmospherics. For someone like her, not a member of the professional left or even the avid grassroots supporters of the President, to have embraced the meme that this President "caves" is a terrible thing, I think. The White House should be very worried that she has internalized this impression. It will be difficult (if not impossible) to overcome.
I can't help but think of the many other young people in their mid to late 20s (like my sister) who have already decided that this President is not up to the task. I talked to my sister on the phone this afternoon and she said something that should more than terrify the White House. She said something to the effect that every time she hears the President on television talking about how "broken" Washington is, all she can think about is how "broken" he is because he is after all Washington.
Between the young people who can't find jobs, the people of color who are living in the depression, and the party activists who feel as though Obama doesn't "fight" for their principles, it is truly difficult for me to see how Barack Obama is re-elected in 2012. If David Plouffe were living our here in the heartland, all of his hair would be grey. I think that this episode means the death-knell for Obama's re-election prospects. I am not prone to hyperbole or to exaggeration. But I really do not see how President Obama recovers from this beat-down by the Tea Party. He has never looked weaker to me and Americans have an allergy to weakness in their leaders.
The Dish 