Marat Terterov gives five reasons to be skeptical about the flowering of democracy in the Middle East. Among them is the fact that the "army remains the bedrock of power across the Arab world":
Most of the Arab regimes that came to power through violent revolution during the Arab nationalism years of the 1950s and 60s remained in power for decades, not only through the backing of the military, but because the regimes were military. The situation in Egypt and Tunisia was no different, with both presidents Ben Ali and Mubarak coming from the military establishment and remaining in power largely due to alliances with key actors in the military and intelligence services.
Although the Tunisian and Egyptian armies played a key role in overseeing the leaders’ departure, there is little transparency about the arrangements made between Tunisia’s Ben Ali, the Tunisian military and the Saudi royals in the brokering Ben Ali’s departure for Saudi Arabia last January. In Egypt, many thousands have returned to Cairo’s Tahrir Square in July to protest against the fact that the generals still remain in power despite the promise of change. The ousted leaders have hardly suffered the fate of many of the Arab world’s ousted monarchical rulers during the region’s 1950s-60s revolutions, when death or exile awaited many.
The Dish 