Bilal Y. Saab and Nicholas Blanford think the risk of an Israel-Hezbollah war is high, and that it would be devastating:
In the five years since the second Qana massacre and the war's conclusion, Lebanon and Israel have enjoyed a rare calm along their border. But both sides are aware that the possibility of renewed conflict remains high and have been furiously updating their weaponry and tactics in anticipation of another round. Should another war happen, we believe that it will be even larger and bloodier than the 2006 conflict. Our judgment is based on extensive field research in Lebanon covering the military preparations of both sides and analyzing their own assessments of the likelihood and nature of a future war.
Matthew Levitt explores how Hezbollah's buildup has been financed by international crime.
The Dish 