Can The Dems Retake The House?

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Tom Jensen thinks so:

We have looked at the generic ballot 11 times going back to the beginning of March and Democrats have been ahead every single time, by an average margin of about 4 points. This 7 point advantage is the largest Democrats have had and if there was an election today I'm think that they'd take back the House.

Chait wonders why more people aren't thinking like Jensen. Two words: learned helplessness. My money is on a Democratic House and a chastened Republican Senate in 2013. Gallup analysis here. My reason for the shift: the staggering recklessness of the GOP in recent months. It goes hand in hand with Obama's turn-around against a generic Republican.