Last week Obama's Gallup approval rating hit 39 before reverting to the mean. Larry Sabato puts this in historical context:
The current White House certainly wouldn’t claim that President Obama is riding a crest of popularity just now. And there’s no guarantee that his wave will ever return. Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that three predecessors — Truman, Reagan, and Clinton — were reelected after having suffered the dirty 30s in the first term. Three others were not reelected — Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 (and arguably LBJ as well, though he withdrew before facing the voters in 1968).
Thus, there are precedents to be cited for and against Obama’s reelection. The only thing we’re sure of is that Republicans and Democrats will choose a different set.
The Dish 