by Zack Beauchamp
The Libyan Revolution has largely succeeded, and this is a moment of celebration, not only for Libyans but for a youth generation in the Arab world that has pursued a political opening across the region. The secret of the uprising’s final days of success lay in a popular revolt in the working-class districts of the capital, which did most of the hard work of throwing off the rule of secret police and military cliques. It succeeded so well that when revolutionary brigades entered the city from the west, many encountered little or no resistance, and they walked right into the center of the capital. Muammar Qaddafi was in hiding as I went to press, and three of his sons were in custody…The end game, wherein the people of Tripoli overthrew the Qaddafis and joined the opposition Transitional National Council, is the best case scenario that I had suggested was the most likely denouement for the revolution. I have been making this argument for some time, and it evoked a certain amount of incredulity.
Virtually overnight, the rebel leadership will need to shift its focus from fighting Qaddafi’s forces to protecting them. In the past few months, the local councils that have emerged in liberated areas have not generally allowed violence against regime supporters. But that is partly because many of Qaddafi’s loyalists have fled from newly liberated towns to Tripoli. Their concentration there and in his hometown of Sirte is going to make the challenge of transition much greater there than anyplace else in Libya.
The seemingly imminent downfall of Muammar Gaddafi may not represent “the end of history”, but, for the moment at least, it’s pretty close to being the end of tyranny, in the historical sense of absolute rule by an individual who has seized power, rather than acquiring it by inheritance or election.
In mid-October, my article with Jon Western on the successes of humanitarian interventions will appear in the journal Foreign Affairs. We consider Libya a smart, successful intervention by a united international community, that stopped an imminent mass atrocity event as the regime prepared to flatten Benghazi.
The course of the war vindicates the “Afghan Model” as a military technique, if not as a political strategy. To review, the Afghan Model is based on the idea that airpower and special forces can help indigenous troops can win wars against numerically and organizationally stronger opponents.
The rebels did the vast majority of the fighting. So it’d be a mistake to give alliance air and sea power all the credit for Gadhafi’s fall. (Although you do have to wonder how many contractors and western intelligence operatives are on the ground, to add some veteran heft to the rookie rebels.)
If it is true that Qaddafi is finally going, we will be able to mark this one down as a victory for NATO (a victory, of course, that also shown us some of the weaknesses of NATO, but more on that later); a victory for the Libyan people, many of whom possessed no serious fighting skills but very large hearts; a victory for the principle of humanitarian intervention (we'll never know if Benghazi would have been the scene of mass slaughter had NATO not intervened when it did, just as we'll never know if Saddam Hussein would have subjected Kurds and Marsh Arabs to another round of genocidal attacks, but we should be happy that now we don't have to know).
Personally, as happy as I am about last night’s developments, I fear that the fall of Qadhafi is already being spun to sanctify the principle of humanitarian interventionism, which I am against, after its misuse in Iraq.
Whether our intervention was necessary or wise, however, depends on how the post-Qaddafi Libya evolves. The danger is that we will have another "Mission Accomplished" moment, when French President Nicolas Sarkozy, NATO head Anders Fogh Rasmussen, President Obama, and their various pro-intervention advisors give each other a lot of high-fives, utter solemn words about having vindicated the new "Responsibility to Protect" (R2P) doctrine, and then turn to some new set of problems while Libya deteriorates.
The combination of foreign airstrikes — which rebels realize saved them, albeit without foreign ground forces which would inevitably antagonize people — gives the West leverage without creating a backlash. Foreign interference is not a dirty word here: one katiba member I met in Ajdabiya said that the first thing he wanted to do after victory was buy a sheep, and bring it to Sarkozy to slaughter in Sarkozy's honor. This means that proposals like bringing in the UN to help with the transitional process, as some Libyan politicians have proposed, is probably going to be broadly acceptable.
The biggest question that will be asked as the endgame appears to be nearing in Libya — is there one unifying figure who can lead Libya if the rebels take over? Right now the resounding answer seems to be no.
The next few months in Libya are not going to be easy – only a fool would imagine that – but nor are the grimmest predictions likely to be fulfilled. Libya is unlikely to turn into another Iraq, let alone another Afghanistan. The first encouraging sign is that the National Transitional Council – a diverse alliance forged out of necessity – has begun making the right noises.
At such moments, any temptations toward euphoria have to be restrained by a recognition that future developments are unpredictable and potentially unpleasant. Overthrowing oppressive and tyrannical regimes is often hard, but successfully reconstructing the societies that they've damaged, distorted, and poisoned by their rule is usually even harder. Still, a certain degree of satisfaction is appropriate. We seem to be witnessing the overthrow of an especially ugly and contemptible dictatorship, which over the decades piled up a lot of crimes at home and abroad, by a genuine popular uprising. That's something to be celebrated. The hangover will come later.
Expect an even harsher crackdown by Syrian forces this week, as Assad tries to bolt the door on revolt before it can be further inspired to emulate that in Libya. But it is already too late. The same scenes of joyous rebels in liberated Tripoli that frighten Assad will energize rebels in Syria.
Attention is likely to turn to Syria as the “next step” in democratizing the Middle East. Some people think that the rebel victory in Tripoli bodes ill for Syria – far from it. Assad has every reason to be more optimistic about his fate than Gaddafi had about his own.
Staying up last night to watch the events unfold on the streets of Tripoli, I cannot help but feel the sense of confidence that swept across the region last night; radiating from TV, computer and mobile screens. I could not help but hear the deafening silence of those who believed the Arab spring had already met its doom, and those who had abandoned their hope in the capabilities of average citizens. The silence of the same people who are content with the grandeurs of their status quo. The same people that have consistently demonstrated their inability to understand the value of freedom, and especially what it’s worth to people who don’t have it, and people who cannot afford it. It is thrilling to see their beliefs shaken to the core; to see them watch a people risk the certainty of the status quo for the uncertainty of something greater, and achieve it.
The Dish 