The New Frontrunner

by Patrick Appel

Gallup finds Perry leading Romney 29% to 17% nationally:

Perry's official entry has shaken up the Republican race, making him the new leader for the party's nomination. Gallup also finds Perry generating strong positive intensity among Republicans familiar with him, suggesting he has a strong initial base with potential to grow, given his below-average recognition. Still, he, like Romney before him, rates as a weaker front-runner than those in prior GOP nomination contests.

PPP has Perry at 33% and Romney at 20%:

Romney continues to lead with the small portion of voters describing themselves as moderates at 27% to 20% for Bachmann and 15% for Perry. But Perry gets stronger and stronger as you move across the ideological spectrum. With 'somewhat conservative' voters Perry leads by 15 points with 38% to Romney's 23% and Bachmann's 11%. And with 'very conservative' voters the advantage expands to 22 points with him at 40% to 18% for Bachmann and 14% for Romney.

Chait believes Perry has upset the logic of Bachmann's campaign. If her supporters continue to flock to Perry, Romney is cooked.