by Maisie Allison
Matthew Dowd plays the parlor game:
If Republicans nominate an extremely polarizing figure who has a difficult time getting independent votes (especially in the crucial Midwest states) or one who instills no passion at all in the conservative base, and if Obama’s approval numbers stay low, then we basically would have two unelectable candidates facing each other in the general election.
Ed Morrissey is skeptical. Erick Erickson can only interpret Huntsman's impertinence as the rumblings of a third-party candidate:
He is slamming the other Republicans. He is smearing Iowans. He’s burning every bridge within the GOP. The only other place to go is to endorse Obama or claim to be a third party “middle way” candidate.
PPP runs the numbers, complicating Dowd's scenario:
[W]e took a look at seven possible independent candidates against Obama and his strongest GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, and found that the chances of defection by GOP-inclined voters are stronger than are cracks in the Democrats’ armor. Despite their grumbling, Democrats remain pretty united behind Obama, and six of the seven possible independent candidates would hurt Romney more than the president.
A third-party Palin run would hurt Romney most:
Palin would split general-electorate Republicans, with Romney at 46% to her 41%. As she usually does when the two are pitted head-to-head, she would give Obama his biggest lead among independents, 51-26, with Palin at 15%. Overall, Obama would run away with the election, 47-26-21 over Romney and Palin.
(Photo: Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and Utah Governor Jon Huntsman listen as Governor Ed Rendell speaks to the media at the meeting of the National Governor's Association after the governors spoke with President-Elect Barack Obama and Vice-President -Elect Joe Biden at Independence Hall December 2, 2008 in Philadelphia. By William Thomas Cain/Getty Images)
The Dish 