by Zack Beauchamp
John F. Copper says "yes:"
China’s reunification of Taiwan will be its Wounded Knee. It will no longer need to focus on territorial matters and will doubtless look to realize power ambitions further from its shores. Its navy has already, for twenty years, been the benefactor of large budget increases (bigger than the air force or army), indicating China’s naval power (enhanced by the recent addition of an aircraft carrier) is ready to break out. This relates to the second argument, the geopolitical one. Looking at its geography, China is “contained” by a proximate chain of islands extending southward from Japan, through the Ryukyu’s, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia…Some strategists refer to the island chain in East Asia as the “Great Wall in reverse.” China’s naval officers and strategists see China as “boxed in.” Clearly geography does not favor China in its goal of expanding its influence into the Pacific Ocean. If Taiwan were to become part of China, this would change.
This is some pretty reductive geopolitical reasoning. What evidence is there that China would, as Copper suggests, want to go threaten the American West Coast with submarines? What exactly would that accomplish for China? And China has no other "territorial concerns" besides Taiwan? I'm supportive of strong U.S.-Taiwanese relations, but the "China will come get us" justification is really weak.
The Dish 