The Hezbollah Powder Keg

Bilal Y. Saab and Nicholas Blanford think the risk of an Israel-Hezbollah war is high, and that it would be devastating:

In the five years since the second Qana massacre and the war's conclusion, Lebanon and Israel have enjoyed a rare calm along their border. But both sides are aware that the possibility of renewed conflict remains high and have been furiously updating their weaponry and tactics in anticipation of another round. Should another war happen, we believe that it will be even larger and bloodier than the 2006 conflict. Our judgment is based on extensive field research in Lebanon covering the military preparations of both sides and analyzing their own assessments of the likelihood and nature of a future war.

Matthew Levitt explores how Hezbollah's buildup has been financed by international crime.

Shades Of Sharia

Mark Lynch attended an Islamist rally in Egypt:

The common slogans demanding sharia or the cries of "Islamiyya Islamiyya" should not be taken as a sign of the consolidation of a single, undifferentiated Islamist trend rising to power. The joint slogans masked considerable ongoing disagreements and competition among Islamist groups. All chanted for implementing sharia, but when pressed on specifics few seemed to have much more in mind than keeping Article 2 of the Constitution which defines Egypt as an Islamic country. The Muslim Brotherhood and the salafis do not agree on what implementing sharia in Egypt would look like, or on many other issues, and will as likely be political rivals as a unified bloc.

“Norway Was A Breakthrough”

A reader writes:

I have a best friend who would take the shirt off his back to help (almost) anyone.  We've been friends since childhood (we're now in our late 40s).  I'm a liberal atheist Democrat, he's a conservative Christianist Republican.  Certainly if we had met as adults we would never have become friends. But because of our history we remain friends, despite our differences and our friendly, but increasingly, vehement arguments.

About a year-and-a-half into Obama's presidency we had to agree to stop talking about politics and the world in order to preserve our long-standing friendship. He wasn't quite a birther, but he suspected something quite wasn't right there. Our final, incredible, blowout argument was over the "Ground Zero Mosque." He had succumbed to the "Muslims are bad" theory and had become a bit zealous, even going as far as saying "Fox News is the only media outlet telling the truth." Sigh. We screamed at each other, there was spittle, and HUGE anger; if we hadn't known each other for so long it might have devolved into fisticuffs.  But, with incredible restraint, we remained friends; it was clear we were skirting around current topics and trying valiantly to stay the course without saying "you're an idiot" to each other. We were hanging out a lot less frequently than we had previously. Sad, but necessary?

Finally, Norway was a breakthrough. I would not have broached the subject, to keep the peace, but his wife brought it up tonight at a backyard BBQ. I didn't say a word for a long time; they talked it out. In essence, the conversation went like this:

Wife:  But he (Breivik) identified himself as a Christian.
My friend: Nope, he couldn't be a Christian.
Wife:  I know, not any Christian we know or could identify with.
My friend:  Ridiculous how he says he's Christian.
Wife: But it got me thinking about how a lot of Muslims say the terrorists aren't true Muslims.
My friend (I was holding my breath at this point):  Yea, I'm starting to see that.  This crazy guy wants to represent Christians.  He's fucking insane.  Maybe the 9/11 guys were insane too and didn't represent Muslims?

He looked me in the eye at that point and … apologized. Ohmygod!  He said, "I never saw the other side."  We both cried.  I'm trying not to be melodramatic here, but it was literally a life changing moment for my friend.  He had truly believed that Muslims were really bad and Christians were good, with some aberrations (he used the Tiller murder as an example of a bad Christian, but never would give that "aberration" description to any Muslim).  Anyway, tonight was unbelievable in my world.  One of my best friends, and a rabid Christianist, acknowledged that all Muslims weren't bad.  Sounds simple?  But, really, a major breakthrough. 

So maybe there is something positive to come out of the tragedy in Norway. Very sad to say that, but in my little world, it's a positive thing.  Obviously this is incredibly anecdotal, but maybe there are other Christianists seeing that there are extremists who don't represent all Christians just as there are Islamists who don't represent all of Islam?

Know hope. 

Obama’s Pyrrhic Defeat, Ctd

A reader writes:

I very much sympathize with your reader and his sister, but I have to question if "caving" was worse than default or a constitutional showdown over the 14th Amendment, especially considering that Obama wanted cuts to begin with.  Have his supporters forgotten this very crucial detail?  The "grand bargain" may have included revenues, but it was mostly cuts; would liberals be happier with these same cuts if they were coupled with modest revenue increases?  If so, then they ought to keep watching, because this fight isn't over.

We should all be rightly aghast at what just happened (and we're going to have to find a new answer for the debt ceiling; that pandora's box has been opened), but the left needs to take a powder here.  Bitter pills aren't poison pills.  The same people who lashed out at healthcare not being everything they wanted will treat this as the ultimate capitulation, but that shrillness wears off — I seriously doubt that the guy who announced bin Laden's death will be thought of as allergy-inducing weak because he compromised on budget cuts.  Cable news and the Huffington Post will be onto the newest outrage in a week.  And Obama will be his usual steady self, because as he has told us quite recently, "a man cannot have his way in all things."

Another writes:

I am astounded by this line from one of your readers: "I opened the e-mail and she had written only one line: "I cannot support a President who seems incapable of standing up to bullies.""

Seriously? Obama is the man who promised to the voters he would get Bin Laden, then led a government operation to get Bin Laden, and then risked his presidency to execute Bin Laden: Obama not only stood up to one of the world's greatest bullies – Obama executed him!

Obama also promised to bring compromise to Washington. Well, Obama delivers on his promises, doesn't he. The lesson is not that Obama caves. The lesson is Obama hunts down and kills the enemies of the US, and Obama compromises with his compatriots for the good of the US. If his base be depressed, then this is the lesson that Obama must drive home in the next election. Perhaps this is a lesson beyond the ability of the young voters to understand, but for those with more experience, Obama is proving himself to be a cunning president able to see the true interests of the US while protecting the vulnerable among us from the depredations of Tea Party nihilism. If only the young voters could see this; perhaps in time they will.

I think this deal, like many alleged Obama caves will look better and better from the rear-view mirror. It doesn't finish the debate and fight over taxes and spending; it re-engages it at a time of dangerous debt levels. If liberals want to take their marbles and go home, they're missing an historic opportunity to make their case.

About Those Defense Cuts

A reality check:

Adjusted for inflation, the United States spent at most $580 billion a year on defense at the height of the Cold War. In the 2011 fiscal year, the Pentagon's baseline budget is $549 billion, with another $159 billion allotted for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, for a total of $708 billion. That total figure drops slightly to $670 billion in the 2012 budget proposal.

Obama's $400 billion reduction would have started with the 2013 fiscal year, but the debt deal begins with the 2014 budget, effectively delaying the pain for the Pentagon by a year. Still, some defense hawks in Congress were worried that even the relatively modest cuts could go too far.

Why Obama Might Lose

Presidential_vote_economics

Just from economics alone, Seth Masket warns that his reelection is anything but certain:

The horizontal axis above measures growth in real disposable income from the 3rd quarter of the year prior to the election to the 3rd quarter of the election year. (We're currently in the 3rd quarter of the year prior to an election.) For example, real disposable income grew by 1.8 percent prior to the 2004 election, in which George W. Bush received the narrowest reelection margin for a president in U.S. history. So it's possible for an incumbent to win during a time of mediocre economic growth, but the odds aren't great. Incumbents win 2/3rds of the time when they stand for reelection, but in the data shown above, of the six elections where RDI growth was below 2 percent, the incumbent party only won two of those. The record is 2-2 when a sitting president is up for reelection under those circumstances.

All these patterns are valid until they aren't.

Allies Left Behind

The US hasn't approved the vast majority of the immigration applications from Iraqi refugees working for the US in Iraq. George Packer is disappointed:

In May, two Iraqis (who hadn’t worked for the U.S. and didn’t come here on Special Immigrant Visas) were arrested in Kentucky on charges of plotting to ship weapons to insurgents in Iraq. Perhaps the Iraqi couple were already on the authorities’ radar when the new screening was put in place in February. Perhaps there are others on the government’s radar now. Whatever the case, it’s clear that, because of possible risks and threats, a process that was already troubled and inadequate has almost come to a dead stop.

The Kentucky case has spooked the agencies and removed any incentive for jittery officials to do right by the Iraqis who, at unbelievable risk to themselves and their families, supported the U.S. during the long years of war.

Molten Coffee And The Courts, Ctd

A reader writes:

I love the post on the hot coffee.  My first class in law school was torts, and the "McDonald's Coffee" case was the topic of our first discussion.  Of course we all thought the case was absurd until we heard the facts.  What we didn't know was that McDonald's had received numerous complaints before about the temperature of their coffee and chose to do nothing.  They justified this decision by bringing in a coffee "expert" who explained to the juror that hot coffee just tastes better and that McDonald's needed to sell the coffee at this temperature to ensure quality.  Finally, they brought in an expert who testified that the people who had been scalded by the coffee in the past were "statistically insignificant."  Calling an elderly woman "insignificant" in light of the photographs you mentioned was terrible strategy on the defense's behalf.

Large jury verdicts like this are good for the public generally.

The settling of tort claims is usually a defense-friendly process if insurance is involved.  The pressure on a plaintiff to settle cases is immense; usually they need the money to pay for medical bills or make up for lost wages and there is always the chance that they get nothing even though they may be deserving.  All these pressures work to reduce settlement values, as the plaintiff will take less than they are entitled to in order to ensure they get something.  "Home run" verdicts like this one serve as a counter balance to those downward pressures.   No insurance company wants to get hit for a million dollar verdict when they only needed to up their offer of $100,000 by $50,000 to settle a claim.  (Oh, and don't worry about insurance premiums; they never go down when the defendants start winning more cases, the insurer's profit margins do.)

Another writes:

I am SO glad to see someone highlighting this case. I have spent years correcting smart-asses who make jokes about it. “Some dumb old lady sued because of hot coffee” has been the meme. This case is a poster child against tort reform.

Years ago I came across an online newsgroup that one of her children and a lawyer involved in the case participated in. The whole thing was appalling and VERY different from what the average person on the street believes about the case. Mrs. Liebeck NEVER intended to sue. During her long, slow, painful recovery she and her family did learn, anecdotally, that McDonald’s coffee was many tens of degrees hotter than any other coffee you served virtually anywhere else, including other restaurant chains. They serve 185 – 190-degree coffee. Your home coffee machine produces 135-degree coffee. Jack-in-the-box, Burger King: 130-140 degrees. They also learned that there had been some utterly grotesque previous accidents requiring emergency treatment. In one unbearably sad case, a teenager passing coffee spilled the cup on her infant sibling, burning the baby over a large part of his body, castrating him.

Still, no intent to sue.

Only years later, after she was able to sit up and collect her thoughts did Mrs. Liebeck write to McDonald's, asking if they would like to contribute to her very significant out-of-pocket expenses. She never expected a response. Or, if they sent a check for a few hundred dollars, so much the better. Either way, that would be the end of it What DID happen, is that they sent a very terse letter offering a few hundred dollars, demanded that she sign a waiver, and basically called her a gold-digger. At some point, her son took the letter to the family lawyer, and then it all went from there.

The McDonald's executives were completely un-briefed and unprepared, and came in the courtroom rolling their eyes and shaking their heads at the jury as though the whole thing was a stupid joke they were all in on, with all this trouble being caused by a stupid old lady. They were a complete fiasco. They related forcefully that they had no intentions of adjusting their practices, even though there have been many complaints, from employees, from customers, from burn hospitals. (They still serve 185-degree coffee nationwide. Employees say it is to prevent people from drinking too fast and asking for refills.)

Very fortunately for McDonalds, Republican-led tort reform limited the amount the judge could allow the jury to award. After dragging the case out in the courts for years, there was a very small out-of-court settlement, basically nothing. It was for a few tens-of-thousands of dollars that covered no ones' expenses, much less legal fees. The family was now broke, and Mrs. Liebeck died around that time.

A Google search for the baby castration story turns up empty, but a similar story was published just three years ago:

A baby left scarred for life after being drenched in scalding hot McDonald's tea is fighting back after undergoing skin grafts. Shakila Khalaghe was burned on her face, chest and legs – but the burger giant has offered just £75 in vouchers as compensation.

Pay With Your Face

Gaurav Kheterpal scans the horizon of personal commerce:

Several speculations suggest that iPhone 5 might support NFC [near field communication] for mobile payments, making it a 'Dream iWallet'. Several companies including Visa and GAP have trialed their mobile payment platforms with the AppleiPhone. The Apple App Store hosts several top notch mobile payment apps. One of these is FaceCash - a unique iPhone app that lets merchants verify a customer's identity by matching his/ her face with a digital image linked to that account […] thereby eliminating the need to carry cash or cards for shopping

Shaking Down Innovation, Ctd

Will Wilkinson decries patent trolling, which was covered recently by This American Life:

This is apparently a patent on streaming music over the internet. Naturally, you are familiar with PacketVideo's popular music streaming service. Oh, you're not? I guess that's because they don't offer one. So, Spotify is trying to make money offering a service that will make consumer's happy. (I'm using it right now. I think it's terrific.) PacketVideo is trying to make money doing what? Shaking down Spotify?

Kevin Drum investigates. Timothy Lee recommends abolishing all software patents.