There's a real chance that the HPV vaccine, the in-state tuition fees for illegal immigrants, and the generic charge of "crony capitalism" could hurt him with the Tea Party base. Let's assume his poll numbers decline a little. You have a narrative of yet another front-runner fading out of the gate. Which leads to a pretty obvious scenario. Paul Burka, a man who knows more than most people can forget about Texas politics, notes the remarkable Palin break from Perry and draws the obvious conclusion:
She’s going to have to time her entry into the race perfectly. But I think she’s the only Republican who doesn’t have to build an organization. It’s there, waiting for her, in Iowa, in New Hampshire, in every state. About those polls that say she can’t win: Many Republicans believe that the country is turning away from Obama, that he will not be electable come November of 2012, and whoever gets the GOP nomination wins. They may be right. I think Palin is playing her cards very smartly. She has the biggest following of any Republican, by far. She has 100% name identification. She is a free agent. I think she’s intent upon running, and I think Rick Perry had better watch out.
The Dish 