A new book imagines it. Sarah Kliff recaps:
The authors estimate that if all smoking ceased in 2006, 2.8 million premature deaths would be avoided between then and 2025. Health spending would decrease by $211 billion, or 1.52 percent, in that same time period. The economic effect on public programs, however, would be more of a mixed bag.
States’ Medicaid costs would noticeably decrease: lower-income populations have higher rates of smoking and the negative health outcomes that follow. But states would also lose revenue from cigarette excise taxes, which amounted to $13.75 billion in 2006. …With Americans living longer, Social Security would bear the increased cost of supporting people for a longer time. But those costs are slightly offset from an increase in healthy workers, who “tend to earn more and retire later,” leading to higher contributions.