“I Would Not Discount Mr. Cain’s Chances Entirely”

116764899

The 999 pizza man is now in a three-way race with a sinking Perry and water-treading Romney:

Cain has benefited not only from his debate performances, but also significant media attention after winning the Florida Republican Party’s straw poll on Saturday. Perry now garners 19 percent, a drop of 10 percentage points from a month ago. That puts Romney back in the top spot with the support of 23 percent. Last month Romney was at 22 percent.

Disillusioned Perry voters are not going to Willard:

Mr. Romney has emerged — or re-emerged — as the favorite; I’d give him roughly even odds of winning the nomination. But it’s unlikely to be a smooth and linear path, and the alternate hypothesis that Republican voters are determined to pick someone more conservative than him has some support in this data.

It cannot be easy for Romney to know that if he gets the nomination, it really will be because the GOP voters really couldn't find any other viable national candidate. In that dynamic, he reminds of John Kerry in 2004.

(Photo: Former Godfather's Pizza CEO and Republican candidate for president Herman Cain speaks during the 2011 Republican Leadership Conference on June 17, 2011 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The 2011 Republican Leadership Conference runs through tomorrow and will feature keynote addresses from most of the major Republican candidates for president as well as numerous Republican leaders from across the country. By Justin Sullivan/Getty Images.)