She is now the final asterisk in the GOP race. And there's been a striking silence from Wasilla lately. Reports of her peeps inquiring into primary deadlines are hard to parse, because, as Allahpundit notes, we don't know when they took place. If it was last week, it's news.
Is it a plausible scenario? If you believe Palin (never a good idea), she has taken her time to see if someone else emerges who can bring her point of view (absent the clinical delusion, congenital dishonesty and wigs) to the White House race. And guess what? If Perry's fall from grace becomes permanent, where will the anti-Romney forces go? Yes, Cain is now the recipient. But she is the incumbent vice-presidential candidate. In the hierarchical nature of Republican electoral politics, she is due more than Cain, even though she is out of her tiny mind. Far right fanatic Dan Riehl makes the case:
Barring another late entry, or unforeseen circumstance, by getting in late, Palin could very well become the last gal standing with enough solid baseline support, name recognition and timely trending attention to take on Romney in a serious way during the actual voting within the GOP primary. What on Earth would there be for a serious conservative to do? If Romney is un-electable, as many have conceded – and, in the view of some, so is Palin – why not fight for principle, as opposed to two ultimately losing candidates?
But is she seriously considering running? Well:
The fact that Palin is touring the early primary states in a giant bus with her name on it would seem, as Jon Stewart has noted, as evidence either that she’s running for president or is crazy (not that these are mutually exclusive options).
Certainly not with Palin. Her main liability – that she is an unstable, adolescent, vindictive incompetent – was fully explored by Joe McGinniss, but the MSM, fearful that their own malpractice in 2008 might be aired, have largely killed the book's chance to get the truth out about this whackjob. I imagine she sees this as another example of her undefeatedness, and further evidence that the MSM needs her for traffic more than it fears her for what she could do to this country and the world. McGinniss thinks the whole thing is a hoax designed for more lucrative speaking gigs.
But consider this. Palin has a cult following of around 10 percent of the GOP base. And this is a floor, not a ceiling. She's not running right now, which surely depresses this number. If she were to run, she could easily end up in double digits while the front-runner cannot move past around 20 percent in this field. She's also under-estimated as a speaker. Why? Because she can deliver a hell of a stump speech for the base, and retains more cred with the base than anyone else, because of Trig. Ralph Reed knows her typical follower well:
“It’s a person who is a devout Christian and a solid social conservative who also has a lot of credentials with the tea party movement,” Reed said. “When you’ve got Herman Cain beating frontrunners to win [the Florida straw poll] it shows you where the activists are right now and I think that’s right in Palin’s wheelhouse.”
And remember her favorite word and self-branding: the rogue. It's possible she could also run as an Independent or Tea Party candidate next year, especially if Romney wins the nomination, and hits a bump in the road. Think about it:
Palin has held the GOP establishment in contempt since 2008. During the 2010 elections, she regularly railed against the “GOP machine” and “good old boys,” and both she and her supporters have accused the party of trying to muzzle Palin. In fact, Palin’s embrace of the Tea Party movement has regularly been coupled with attacks on the Republican Party, and she’s often keen to note that her spirit and principles are conservative, not Republican.
In short, Palin doesn’t claim loyalty to the GOP, and in fact loathes the party establishment. There’d be no greater blow she could strike to the GOP elite than to run as an independent and siphon off votes from the Republican nominee. Party bigwigs would either fawn over her, trying to coax her out of the race, or attack her mercilessly as they try to discredit her among conservative-minded voters. Either way, Palin would once again be the center of attention.
The obvious problem is that she would all but guarantee the re-election of Barack Obama. Is she delusional and narcissistic enough to plow onward regardless?
You betcha!
(Photo: People gather at theTea Party Express rally on September 5, 2011 at Veteran's Memorial Park in Manchester, New Hampshire. The rally is part of the 'Reclaiming America' bus tour traveling through 19 states and visiting 29 cities before arriving in Tampa, Florida for a presidential debate co-sponsored by CNN on September 12. By Darren McCollester/Getty Images.)
The Dish 