If history is any guide:
[T]he past build downs have seen defense resources decline an average of 30% in constant dollars over ten years. Right now, the Budget Control Act would lead to a build down of about eight percent, so historically very low. We will get to at least 17%, because that is what $1 trillion represents, as a ten year reduction from the Pentagon's appetite. If the 1990s is a precedent, we will go beyond that. The difference between the 1985 baseline and what DoD actually got between 1985 and 1998 was a total of $ 1.6 trillion.
The Dish 