Henry Schleifer thinks the 10% chance Intrade is giving him is too low:
Mitt Romney is not as strong as he seems. Yes he has done well in debates. Yes he has looked the most presidential. But he has yet to take any body blows on his Massachusetts mandate and he still does not crack 25% in most polls.
The most troubling part of the polling is that while Perry’s support has fallen, it has gone to Herman Cain and not to Romney. Cain is merely a placeholder for the most conservative voters who right now are dwelling on Governor Perry’s immigration stand. These voters will come home to Perry – after all Cain is more intent on hawking his book rather than campaigning in the early primary states.
E.J. Dionne adds:
All the political logic says that, well, this is now Romney’s race to lose. I just can’t believe that (1) it’s over this early or (2) that the entire pundit class (myself included) can be right in pegging Romney as the winner already.
The Dish 