I have to say that my impressions of the GOP debates this fall and of Obama's Truman strategy of running against an obstructionist Congress are beginning to gel around a strategic advantage for the president. Yes, with the sputtering of his core narrative of recovery, he ran aground after the debt ceiling fiasco and the credit rating downgrade. But his newly peppy combative stance – embraced only after post-partisanship failed on the rocks of Cantor – is beginning to yield dividends. Some provisional and early data:
An ABC/Washington Post poll this month saw Obama enjoying enormous gains across the board on the question of whether voters trust the president or Republicans in Congress more to create jobs. In September, 37 percent of independents said Obama, while 42 percent said Republicans. A month later, the poll was much better for the president, with 44 percent saying they trust Obama more and only 31 percent favoring the GOP. The new discipline is working with Democrats, too. After almost three years of begging Obama to drive home a consistent message on jobs, Democrats are starting to rally behind the president. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats in the ABC/Post poll trusted Obama on jobs in September. That number is now up to 79 percent.
I also believe that the GOP debates have only underlined how unserious the GOP currently is. Only Romney looks even close to being a credible presidential contender – and yet it is also clear that he does not represent the real soul of the party. But those who do – Perry, Cain, Bachmann – have come across as extremists or blatherers or entertainers. All you hear are stern demands for an end to Obamacare – which hasn't even been put in place yet – and vague promises to cut taxes and spending. Not too specific on jobs, are they? And while Romney is an accomplished politician, he has an obvious and huge vulnerability. In an era of populism and anti-corporate sentiment, he seems to embody what so many now suspect. If he wins, he could turn the incumbent once again into an insurgent. At least, that's the danger.
And, if you haven't noticed, Obama knows how to campaign.
The Dish 