Lucan Way has his doubts [pdf]:
The changes in Europe in 1989 proved so deep and long-lasting because diffusion was backed up by a basic transformation in the regional balance of power and the sudden elimination of a key source of communist stability. Gorbachev’s decision to end the Soviet Union’s extensive backing of communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe created qualitatively new challenges to authoritarian survival in the region. Like their Central and East European counterparts in 1989, many Arab autocrats now face unprecedented unrest at home. Yet many if not most Middle Eastern autocracies retain the coercive and diplomatic resources that have kept their regimes in place for so long. Elements of the external environment that have bolstered these regimes for generations (for example, U.S. financial support and the Arab-Israeli conflict) have changed little. The upshot is that 2011 in the Middle East is not 1989 in Eastern Europe
Malou Innocent sees a Saudi-Iranian conflict as underlaying regional politics. Meir Javendafar zooms in on how the fallout from the assassination plot could affect the Iranian regime.
The Dish 