I figured it would probably end this way.
Congratulations to Libya’s transitional government. Plenty of commentators will note how long it took, how many problems remain, the uncertainty around the role of Islamists in Libya’s governance, and the potentials for rifts in Libya’s social fabric. But hey, the rebels won, they did it as efficiently as might be expected from a bunch of dentists and engineers who took up arms against a police state, and they are sincerely trying to build a better society. Let’s leave the nitpicking for another day. Today belongs to the Libyan people.
[H]ere are some questions one can ask already: If he was killed, how? As a prisoner or a fugitive? Was it a NATO strike, or was he shot in a gunfight? Was he captured alive, and then killed? (That matters, even for him.) Who is left in his circle, who has been captured, will they be tried, and by whom?
A major remaining question is whether pro-regime elements will continue fighting without Muammar, and whether his sons have enough support to become leaders of an insurgency, should it emerge.
Now those two opposing propositions are facing their moment of final confrontation. When will NATO’s naval blockade end? When will NATO’s spy planes, drones and fighter jets — which conducted over 26,000 intelligence missions and launched 9,618 strikes between March 31 and October 19 — stop patrolling Libya’s skies? If an insurgency develops, can NATO avoid returning to Libya, if it ever actually leaves?
He also mocks the likely coverage from a few sources. Richard Dickler:
Reports of Muammar Gaddafi's death, if accurate, deprive the Libyan people of the chance to see him held to account in a fair trial at the ICC [international criminal court] for the egregious crimes he allegedly committed while suppressing peaceful demonstrations in February 2011.
However, his demise does not extinguish the need to bring to trial those most responsible for serious crimes against humanity and war crimes in Libya to fair trial in The Hague. There are outstanding arrest warrants for two other suspects.
Gaddafi was also wrong about one thing. Like many dictators, he reassured himself, when he was under attack from western democratic leaders, that the political system they promoted ensured their own political demise. Whatever they said about him didn't matter since their electors would kick them out shortly anyway.
While the context of the Arab Spring is entirely different from that of the invasions of Iraq or Afghanistan, the thought that democracy could be forced upon a nation has been avoided by the Obama administration in a post-Mubarak Egypt and a post-Gaddafi Libya. With Qaddafi’s death today, the challenge now is to continue taking this view while helping Libya move toward democracy. Working towards a successful transition requires adherence to two rules:
- A bottom-up system will be much more successful than a top-down one.
- The system that works in the U.S. may not work in these countries.
Gaddafi’s death shows that the United States, Canada and the major nations of Europe are not powerless spectators in the ongoing drama of Arab political modernization: But not for our bombing campaign, the rebels would, at best, be locked in a stalemate with Gaddafi’s loyalists. At worst, they’d all be locked away in torture chambers. Nevertheless, the event should not encourage the idea that we can dictate the flow of history in Libya or anywhere else. From the Hindu Kush, to the Balkans, to North Africa, the lessons of the post-Cold War period show that all politics — including the politics of revolution — remain local.
The more serious effect might be in how this kind of outcome affects the behavior of other autocrats. As Giacomo Chiozza and Hein Goemans observe in Leaders and International Conflict, the private incentives of leaders profoundly affect their use of force. Simply put, when leaders have expectations of a violent demise if they lose power, they have a more powerful incentive to use force to stay in power. So, congrats to Libya, but this is simply going to harden the hearts of Bashir Assad and others out there determined to stay in power through any means necessary — including instigating cross-border conflicts.
There’s still a worthwhile debate to be had over whether U.S. intervention in Libya was a wise move, a terrible tragedy, or something in between, but the White House can credibly claim quite a bit of success: the Arab League endorsed intervention from the West; the administration assembled an international coalition with surprising speed; the mission gained approval from the United Nations; and as of this morning, it appears the Gaddafi regime is no more.
The Dish 