Which Of These Losers Will Win?

GT_Cain

Kyle Kondik wonders how serious Cain's candidacy is:

Cain’s polling numbers are skyrocketing, but then again, this Republican primary battle has been so crazy that another non-politician politician (Donald Trump — remember him?) once led national polls. In fact, as New York Times commentator Nate Silver pointed out recently, 10 different individuals have led at least one national Republican primary poll this year. Cain may very well be a placeholder candidate — a person gaining support in polls and straw polls not because he actually has a chance of winning, but because Republicans are just unsettled and don’t see anyone in the field they are ready to rally around just yet.

Nate Silver thinks Cain must win Iowa if he's to have any chance at the nomination. Joe Klein takes a second look at Perry:

I’d say that Rick Perry is probably stronger than he seems right now–those who’ve watched him work a crowd think he has excellent retail political skills, which are very important in a place like Iowa. I’d also guess that Herman Cain is an overvalued commodity at the moment–he’s a nice protest parking place for Tea Partisans disappointed by the Bachmann and Perry adventures.

Kevin Drum says Tea Partiers should reconsider Romney because he'll do their bidding if they keep his feet to the fire:

It's not like [Romney] can give a speech saying he doesn't care about principle and will just abjectly do whatever the tea party wants him to do, so help him God. Still, good politicians always figure out how to get messages like this across with a wink and a nudge in just the right place. Romney can do it too if he devotes enough CPU cycles to the problem.

And Matt Latimer doesn't blame Perry's slide on poor debate performances:

Perry is in trouble for one (very surprising) reason: he has shown an alarming lack of understanding about how to talk to his own base. It is not that conservatives refuse to tolerate Perry's liberal view (if he'll excuse the term) on the issue of illegal immigration. What rankles even more is that Perry had to label those who disagreed with him as heartless. This struck too close to the language of Bush and Rove when they tried to push an immigration-reform bill past their political base and lashed out when the base balked. And Perry definitely doesn't need that particular comparison.

(Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

The Wage Gap

Auren Hoffman predicts it will grow:

Over the next generation, we are moving to a world where most (like 90%) software developers will earn a decent wage (say $50k/year) and a few (like 10%) amazing developers will earn over $500k. Yes, the income distribution for the same profession of people who went to the same university and had the same SAT scores could actually be that stark.

Reihan adds his two cents.

We’re Still Fighting Over Suffrage?

The Brennan Center for Justice has a new report out detailing a wave of legislation that could make it harder for many to vote. Serwer summarizes:

Since the 2010 mid-terms, states have introduced and passed laws requiring proof of citizenship, ending election day voter registration, restricting voter registration efforts, limiting early voting, and making it harder for the formerly incarcerated to regain their voting rights post-release.

Ben Smith downplays the findings:

For presidential election purposes, Kansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Alabama don't matter very much. And so another way to look at the study is that in the presidential election, ID laws in Wisconsin and laws restricting registration and early voting in Florida and Ohio will likely help the Republican nominee, at least on the margins. Laws making it harder for felons to regain the franchise in Florida and Iowa may have the same effect.

Charles P. Pierce gets riled up.

Defending The White Savior Trope

Chris Blattman writes an apologia of sorts for the upcoming (and widely-derided) Machine Gun Preacher, based on the real life adventures of Sam Childers:

Few rebel movements are built on a single man. [The Lord's Resistance Army] mostly was: the now semi-notorious Joseph Kony. In spite of the fact that the US and the Ugandans probably had a decent sense where he was (sat phones can be tracked) he evaded capture for more than two decades. And by “evade”, I mean “basically do whatever the hell he wants because almost nobody is coming after him.” That had started to change by 2006. But I sincerely wonder if you could find a single victim or teacher or aid worker or priest in northern Ugandan who didn’t once say to themselves, “Man, if we just got one group of elite troops and hunted him down, this would all be over.” In fact, I bet a good number of them thought, “I should just do that myself.” This doesn’t mean that marching into the bush with your own machine gun, and sights for Kony, is a particularly good idea. Most of us have the sense, and lack the courage, not to do it. But it was inevitable someone would.

How To Get Iran To “Yes”

Ray Takeyh and Ken Pollack support more coercion. Steve Walt counters:

Pollack and Takeyh never confront the inherent contradiction in the “two-track policy” (which, to repeat, they admit has been a failure). This policy is supposed to convince Tehran that the United States is not irrevocably hostile, and that we would really, really like to have a better relationship. It is also designed to convince Tehran that it has no need for a nuclear deterrent, or even a latent nuclear capability that could be used to get a bomb at some point down the road. But while we are supposedly trying to reassure Iran about our intentions, the United States has been ratcheting up sanctions, almost certainly engaging in covert action against the clerical regime, pointedly emphasizing that all options (including the use of force) are “on the table,” and making it abundantly clear that we would be perfectly happy if regime change occurred. 

Daniel Serwer mediates.

Must The Story Of The Fall Be True? Ctd

  Islamic_Adam_&_Eve

My friend Kevin Sessums wrote a Facebook item two days ago about his vision of light beneath a crucifix when he walked the Camino, and a truly strange experience of what he describes as a "demonic" "angel of light" the other night outside the window of his Manhattan apartment. I can almost hear the rolling of the eyes out there. But his follow-up post got to something that really helped me:

I hope I didn't freak too many of you out yesterday with my posting about angelic and demonic visions – although I did feel as if I were in the finale scene of a Boito opera. Others of you might have just thought I was getting all Shirley MacLaine on your ass. Shirley did walk the Camino as I did and wrote a book about it in which she describes having her own visions there. When I read her book before heading over to Spain for my own walk on the Camino, God knows I rolled my own eyes at some of what she wrote of envisioning. But finally, yes, God alone knows if what I described yesterday is real or not. I only know it is true.

Things can be real and not true; and they can be true and not real. And sometimes, the true becomes the real, which is how Catholics see the Mass.

I am sure plenty of Christians today and in the past (and many today) believed in the literal truth of Genesis, down to the seven days and Adam as dust and Eve as his rib. They believed it to be real and true. But it is quite obvious to me in the 21st Century that this is not real, even though it may, in a deeper sense, tell us a metaphorical truth. I know many will scoff at this as pure expedience, shiftng the goalposts of religious faith through time to avoid any accountability. But from my point of view, it makes sense.

I am not a fundamentalist. I do not believe that human beings can truly, definitively understand the ways of God with any precision, and this view is, from Job to even Jesus, uncontroversial in Christianity. But we can, at various times, glimpse the Godhead, as in the Incarnation, even as we clumsily attempt to translate that ineffable truth into imagery and language that humans can understand. In that sense all religious doctrine is wrong. It has to be. And when it seems right, it is only because we may be grasping at a partial truth, not the whole:

Now we see through a glass, darkly; then we shall see face to face.

When Jesus spoke of the Kingdom of Heaven, he used human analogies and parables. By this act, He was telling us, I believe, that though we have some ability to grasp the divine, we are ultimately limited by our physical lives and needs and emotions. And so the revelation that with greater knowledge and intelligence, we can see that Genesis is literally untrue but, through metaphor, tells  456px-Adam_and_Eve_from_a_copy_of_the_Falnama a deeper truth about us is not some strange post-hoc rationalization. It's intrinsic to the view that God is eternal but our grasp on God shifts and changes as we understand the world better and as Revelation unfolds through time.

So Genesis may no longer be real to us; but it can still be true. Is it contrary to the Big Bang, and the now-remarkable news that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate? Yes and no. No, because its literal account is very different and empirically false. Yes, because we now know humankind emerged from earlier species around 200,000 years ago and was defined by greater intelligence and self-awareness – our consciousness expanding in the same accelerating way as the universe. I see Genesis as a myth that describes this process of becoming human, buried as it must have been in the collective conscious. It was the best they could come up with at the time.

This turns fundamentalism on its head. It does not say that there is a literal truth about everything, definitively revealed once and for all, and that we need to cling to it with white knuckles or abandon it altogether in the face of new empirical evidence. It says that the Truth is eternal, but we are not. But collectively, we have long striven to discern it almost as a defining characteristic of our species. So in each age, our guesses will be wrong, but also more attuned to what can be right. A key premise here is that reason and revelation are in the end compatible, but, on earth, we may never be able to prove it so. Hence the need for faith and reason in a constant dynamic and interaction. In the beginning was reason and reason was with God and reason was God. We need, in Pascal's words, both the use of and submission of reason.

For me, the key point is that we are all contingent beings in a long arc of human history and pre-history. But there is a direction: The knowledge and intelligence of humankind has expanded exponentially over time. Intelligence shows a slow but unremitting advance in the aggregate and at the top end, may soon, through computers, exceed anything previously known to man, and beyond. To argue therefore that religious stories told and written down thousands of years ago are bunk because they have been proven empirically untrue seems banal to me. Yes, the truths that are conveyed in this story are obviously filtered through the knowledge base at the time. So the sun and moon are designed for the earth; and the creation of everything was explained through a literal story of a figure "God" who can physically reach down to earth and mix some earth and create a human male, and then remove his rib while he is asleep and create a woman. But it does not threaten the fundamental concept of a creation, or, if you take the story as a metaphor, evolution itself. We knew these things to be true before we proved them to be real.

Atheists and fundamentalists want to argue that we cannot shift our understanding, because those who first wrote these things probably believed them to be literally true and countless Christians and Jews have done so throughout the ages. But if you believe that these ultimate things and questions, including God and the origin of our consciousness, must surpass our understanding, then the Truth exists outside of our capacity to grasp it – and we may, at different times in our species history, come up with different ways to express them, none of which, definitionally, can be actually real. 

These are only hints and guesses,
Hints followed by guesses; and the rest
Is prayer, observance, discipline, thought and action.
The hint half guessed, the gift half understood, is Incarnation.

The Incarnation is where the true and the real touched. And that, much more than the doctrine of atonement or of the Resurrection, is, to my mind and soul, the crux, as it were, of Christianity.

(Illustrations: Paintings by Manafi al-Hayawan, depicting Adam and Eve, from Maragh in Mongolian Iran, 1294/99, and Adam and Eve from a copy of the Falnama, Book of Omens, ascribed to Ja´far al-Sadiq ca. 1550. Via Wiki. )

On Criticizing Israel

Daniel Luban reviews three new books on neoconservatism. A fascinating nugget about divisions among the neocon founding fathers:

By 1988, when Commentary convened a symposium to address the problem of “the upsurge of Jewish criticism of Israel,” the divisions among The Public Interest writers were evident. Kristol, for his part, went along with the Likudism that had by then become Commentary‘s animating impulse, expressing his contempt for Jewish elites “who feel compelled to temper their natural pro-Israel sympathies with a more ‘sophisticated’ critical stance.” But Glazer, by contrast, warned that “Israel is far gone along the road of helotizing [its] conquered Arab population,” while Bell irritably complained of a “hidden agenda” behind the Commentary symposium and asked: “what is wrong with criticizing Israeli policies and doing so in public? I always assumed that such an attitude was a healthy one.”

The great tragedy of the movement was that Bell's and Glazer's open minds and reformist instincts lost out to the extremism and fanaticism of Podhoretz and Kristol. And Israel – yet again – was a core reason.