Isaac Chotiner argues that Pawlenty would have been the frontrunner if he hadn't bolted:
It seems possible…that Pawlenty badly miscalculated. If we have learned one thing from this election, it is that every candidate will get his or her time in the sun. Bachmann did. Cain did. Even Gingrich is likely to, as Ed Kilgore explains here. Surely this would have been true of Pawlenty, who is a much more credible alternative to Romney. What's more, when Pawlenty quit it was not even clear that Perry would be a strong candidate (he has not been). Paul Ryan and Chris Christie were always longshots to enter the race. The scenario we are seeing now was very plausible.
Scott Lemieux nods. Allahpundit counters:
[I]t was Iowa or bust for [Pawlenty], yet thus far this year there’s no evidence of any serious constituency in Iowa for non-firebrand conservatives apart from the 25 percent or so who support Romney.
Larison lays out why Pawlenty didn't have a chance. So does Nate Silver. A "Republican working on the race" e-mails Ben Smith:
I just can't take any more blog posts on this. He was 500K in debt. He would have had to fire two-thirds of his staff and deal with the exodus stories. … He'd have spent the past 3 months banking just on debates, where he wasn't exactly knocking the cover off the ball when he was in the race.
The Dish 