Nate Silver gives him about a 50-50 shot at re-election. Chait thinks he's wrong:
Obama has a chance to have his approval rating rise simply by drawing a sharp contrast against the Republican nominee. In other words, incumbent approval rating isn't something that's independent of the opposing candidate. Voters may shape their view of the incumbent by making a comparison.
I have no idea. But Chait's point about Bush's approval ratings rising as Kerry settled in as his opponent is a valid one.
The Dish 