The super committee doesn't sound like it's making progress. If a deal isn't reached, Ezra Klein doubts Congress will defuse the trigger mechanism:
The trigger is law. It is part of the Budget Control Act of 2011, which passed in August. To change the law, the two parties would need to agree on how to change it. So it’s not enough for Republicans to say they would like to see the trigger “reconfigured.” It’s not even enough for Democrats to also want to see the trigger reconfigured. The two parties have to agree on how to reconfigure it. And that would be difficult for the same reason that passing a deficit-reduction deal is difficult.
Kevin Drum differs:
[H]ow many Democrats will be willing to stick to their guns and allow the Pentagon cuts to go forward if the supercommittee fails? Not enough, probably, and Republicans know it. What's more, they've always known it, which is why they've never taken the trigger seriously. Reneging on this summer's deal was baked into the cake from the day it was proposed.
The Dish 