Ambinder ponders it:
[E]verything turns to South Carolina. If the person who wins Iowa…say…Newt…wins South Carolina, then the party's conservative forces will seek to winnow the field quickly. There's no question that everyone knows Newt's vulnerabilities. But conservatives remember more indelibly, I think, the old Newt — the guy who invented the language that they use to run against Democrats…the guy who took on the Clintons in the 90s.. and this impression engenders considerable loyalty.
Suddenly, he gets money. Suddenly, Florida becomes a race again. And the conservative movement gets to see whether they can beat the establishment forces…losing the race in 2008 but vowing to fight another year. With the right conservative candidate, the Mitt Romney coronation is not inevitable. Still likely? Yes. Inevitable? No.
Chart from Gallup's latest poll. They note the volatility of the Republican race:
[T]he current contest stands to be the most competitive and perhaps most unpredictable for the Republican nomination since 1972, when the parties shifted the power to choose their presidential nominees away from party leaders at the national convention to the rank-and-file voters in state primaries and caucuses.
Jonathan Bernstein, on the other hand, claims that "Romney has an excellent chance of wrapping this thing up by New Year’s Day" because he's winning the endorsement race. Weigel expects Gingrich to go down in flames:
[T]here's strong evidence that we're catching Gingrich at the height of his late career popularity. Nobody's taken a swing at him in any real way for six months. (Mitt Romney delivered a slap on the health care mandate in the Vegas debate; that's about it.) Swing voters haven't paid attention to him, either. But Gingrich is the same guy that got demonized and hoisted by his petard 13 years ago.
The Dish 
