
Nate Silver ponders Obama's approval bump:
I am not an economic determinist who says economic numbers are the only thing that matters; the relationships are more tenuous than that. However, my view is that the economy deserves the “right of first refusal.” If you can explain a change in approval ratings based on economic attitudes — and I think you can in this case — this will usually be necessary and sufficient.
The above chart, showing Obama's approval numbers minus Rassmussen and Gallup polls, from Josh Marshall:
[T]he important thing to note is that the overall trend and average is heavily weighted toward the two organizations that run daily tracking polls — Rasmussen, which tends to run unfriendly to the president and Gallup, which is generally more favorable to him. Tracking polls only have full, non-duplicated data every three to five days (depending on the tracking poll).