Intrade gives Romney a 70 percent chance at the nomination. Douthat maps Romney's "three paths to victory":
Because the early states aren’t winner-take-all, there’s no chance of a Gingrich or a Perry doing what John McCain did in 2008, and building up an insurmountable delegate lead by March on the strength of a string of narrow victories. And the winner-take-all contests that follow are mostly in regions that seem likely to break for the former Massachusetts governor – the Northeast, the West Coast and the Mormon-heavy Mountain West. If it’s a two-man race in April, in other words, Romney will (still) have the inside track.
Will Wilkinson is hoping for a Paul win in Iowa:
If Mr Romney sweeps the early states, the most ridiculously enjoyable primary season in recent memory will turn dreadfully dull.
The Dish 