Ezra Klein wonders what will happen in 60 days when the payroll tax cut is set to expire again:
One possibility is that the Republicans decide that fighting the payroll tax cut is simply too much trouble. If that's their conclusion, then the next extension might pass easily. But another possibility is that House Republicans are furious at having been forced to buckle this time, and their takeaway is that, next time, they need a better strategy, and they need to make sure Mitch McConnell and John Boehner are on the same page. In that case, the next extension will be an even heavier lift.
By the same token, the lessons the Democrats' took matters, too. And that one seems easier to predict: don't spend too much time negotiating with Republicans.
[A]ll that resulted from the last month of bickering is that we agreed to waste another another two months of government time on absurd posturing and positioning and sound-biting… when we already know the outcome and when there are dozens of other more critical issues and problems for our government to deal with and solve.
[Republicans] get one of their demands, and another chance. They'll have to eat some "Republicans in disarray" headlines for a few days, but reporters are heading home and offline, too. Democrats won the immediate fight. Republicans didn't lose too much in the war.
House Republicans have horrible politics squared. Now and two months from now — unless they figure out a way to balance the desire of taxpayers for a continuation of their payroll-tax cut against their desire to reduce the size and scope of government. That failed once and visibly so. Unless House Republicans reverse that trend, February could look like Groundhog Day. Except it won't be nearly as funny as Bill Murray's version.
The minimal time horizon for business is the quarter — three months. What genius came up with two? U.S. businesses would have to budget for two-thirds of a one-quarter tax-holiday extension. As if this government has not already heaped enough regulatory impediments and mindless uncertainties upon business.
[T]he hypocrisy of Krauthammer and others about the value of a two-month extension is astounding. He took no such position when the House GOP insisted on short-term continuing resolutions that funded the government for weeks rather than months at a time, something that has to be extremely unsettling for any company working with the government and whose project depends on continuing appropriations. Krauthammer also didn't complain earlier this year when congressional Republicans insisted that the federal debt ceiling be raised in small amounts rather than at once, something that to this day makes the bond market nervous.
There is a debate about whether it is actually possible for a congressional party writ large to actually turn the public against it. Some research suggests that the public, except for strong partisans, pays little attention to politics and holds the president responsible for everything, so Republican misgovernance is liable to hurt Obama at least as much as it hurts Republicans. (This seemed to happen during the debt ceiling crisis, when both Obama and the congressional GOP lost public support.) Others suggest it isn’t so obvious this will hold up – that the Republicans have flouted public opinion more brazenly and dangerously than any previous congressional party.
Who knows what this episode of overreach by the House Republicans means — for the political balance, and for press coverage. Right at this moment it feels at least slightly similar to Newt Gingrich's overreach and miscalculation with the government shutdown in 1995.
Slightly. My own view is that perception of Obama has gone from his being weak to his being steady. One should never forget the emotional temperature. The president looks like an adult, and has the temperament to back it up. The House GOP – and the GOP candidates – look like moody adolescents, throwing hissy fits, and seemingly indifferent to real-life questions. In a period of great uncertainty, steadiness matters. And if the GOP continues on this course, the case for Obama as a stabilizer in this system becomes more appealing to independents.
The Dish 