Anything Can Still Happen

Some words of wisdom from Bill Galston:

As I reread my piece before sending it off, my mind drifted back to early 1984, when I was serving as Issues Director in Walter Mondale’s presidential campaign. On February 20, Mondale won the Iowa caucuses with 49 percent of the vote, while Gary Hart finished a distant second with 17 percent. Eight days later, on the morning of the New Hampshire primary, the New York Times published a front-page story whose lead paragraph is seared into my memory:

“With Senator John Glenn continuing to fade and no new challenger emerging strongly, Walter F. Mondale now holds the most commanding lead ever recorded this early in a Presidential nomination campaign by a nonincumbent, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.”

Sixteen hours later, Gary Hart had won the New Hampshire primary by an astounding 9 percentage points, the race was turned upside down, and Mondale nearly lost it. Could it happen again? I don’t see how. But I didn’t 28 years ago either.